470
FXUS61 KBOX 101109
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
709 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED EARLY MORNING SHOWERS QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLE WARM HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S TODAY.
- PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRI-SAT. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 40S-LOWER 50S.
- PERIOD OF SHOWERS LIKELY SOMETIME LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
PERHAPS SOME DOWNPOURS. DRY & SEASONABLE WEATHER FOLLOWS MON.
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH MAY RETURN FOR A DAY OR TWO BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED EARLY MORNING SHOWERS QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLE WARM HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY EARLY-MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING-
EARLY AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL AIRMASS STILL QUITE WARM WITH 925T ON
THE ORDER OF +22C TO +24C. THIS COUPLED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MIDDLE 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE GOOD MIXING...SO EXPECT WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS PARTS MA ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRI-
SAT. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 40S-LOWER 50S.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL SEPTEMBER WEATHER. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRI NIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S AND 55-60 IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...PERIOD OF SHOWERS LIKELY SOMETIME LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH PERHAPS SOME DOWNPOURS. DRY & SEASONABLE WEATHER
FOLLOWS MON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT TO
APPROACH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS SOMETIME LATE
SAT NIGHT AND/OR SUN. PWATS REACH AROUND 2 INCHES SO SOME DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS POTENTIAL NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY MONDAY...BRINGING MAINLY
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH MAY RETURN FOR A DAY OR TWO BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH
SOUTHWEST FLOW/MIXING WE CAN GENERATE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. BUT GIVEN THE SETUP...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS TO REACH BACK INTO THE 80S FOR A DAY OR TWO BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR, BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TO
MIDMORNING ASSOCIATED WITH BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, SW
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF A W DIRECTION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BRIEF GUSTS
UP TO 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE
COD.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS WHICH SHOULD DECOUPLE IN THE NORMAL LOW-
LYING LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS 6-12 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W OCCURS BY 14/15Z. GUSTS DIMINISH
AFTER 01Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WIND GUSTS WERE THE TYPICALLY PRONE
AREAS OF NEAR BUZZARDS/CAPE COD BAY AS WELL AND NANTUCKET SOUND.
BUOYS INDICATING SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS IN THOSE
SPOTS...SO GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE THERE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WSW WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL WATERS. STRONGEST OF THOSE WILL
BE NEARSHORE...BUT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE REST OF OUR WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY-MID
EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP SCA HEADLINES FOR OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR ALL WATERS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
235>237-250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOOLEY
MARINE...FRANK
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