091
FXUS61 KBOX 112359
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE REGION SITS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. LOWS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
- SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUN. LOW PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE MON-TUE BUT A BRIEF BOUT OF SUMMER WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY POSSIBLE WED AND/OR THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE
REGION SITS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOWS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, ENDING UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT,
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL, ALLOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. AREAS THAT
RADIATE WELL SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 40S WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO
THE COASTS AND DON'T RADIATE AS WELL WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO
LOW 50S OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AFFIXED OVER THE REGION INTO TOMORROW,
THEN SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 10-14C IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S, WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COASTS IN THE LOW 70S WITH LOCAL SEABREEZES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUN. LOW PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, CLEARING THE
PATH FOR A LOW PRESSURE TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LARGER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
DRIVE A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE TIMING FOR THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF RAINFALL HAS
SLOWED SLIGHTLY. IT NO APPEARS TO BE SOME TIME FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL, BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL FOR
MOST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 35-50% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN ONE INCH
OF RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CT INTO RI.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID. THUS, LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FLOODING RISK
THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DRY AND SEASONABLE MON-TUE. A BRIEF BOUT OF
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION MON AND TUE,RETURNING
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RETURN OF SUMMERLIKE WARMTH/HUMIDITY SOME TIME WED INTO
THU. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC, WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF THIS TIMING
WINDS UP BEING SLOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS. UNTIL THIS FRONT
PASSES US BY, EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO
THU.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. CALM/LIGHT NNW WINDS, WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS STARTING TO
COME IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG MUCH OF
THE COAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR MOVING IN FROM W TO E STARTING
AROUND 08Z SUN. CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE FROM W TO E WITH THESE
LOWER CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. VISIBILITIES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SEAS 2-3 FT; WINDS SHIFTING MORE NE TONIGHT REMAINING
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT, THEN SHIFTING MORE SE SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER E OUT TO SEA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, THOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE GREATLY HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM
W TO E. VISIBILITIES MAY DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...BELK/HRENCECIN
MARINE...BELK/HRENCECIN
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