525
FXUS61 KBOX 040543
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
143 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- BEAUTIFUL AND REFRESHING FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY,
THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE WEEK,
THEN A RETURN TO DRY, FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BEAUTIFUL AND REFRESHING FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
WOW. B-E-A-U-TIFUL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON! A TRUE FALL AIRMASS
HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND WHAT A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE
FROM THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
REFRESHING! 925MB TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED AROUND +10C, RESULTING
IN HIGHS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS DO NOT FULLY DECOUPLE, THOUGH STILL EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS DIPPING WELL INTO THE 40S. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO
ANOTHER QUIET START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A
TOUCH COOLER, WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C. THUS, EXPECT HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S, WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY IS NOT A
WASHOUT. BASED ON THE 12Z SUITE OF CAMS, SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS 3-5 PM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES AFTER 7 PM AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS ACROSS AREAS CLOSEST
TO THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY, AS MOST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THAT BEING SAID,
CANNOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH SHOWERS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET.
THE HREF DOES PICK UP ON THIS POTENTIAL, THOUGH PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW AT LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HOW MUCH RAINFALL? GENERALLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MANY, WITH TOTALS OF ONE
TO TWO TENTHS FAVORED SOUTH OF ROUTE 44. AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS NANTUCKET.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN WRAPPING UP DURING THE MONDAY MORNING HOURS,
THOUGH TIMING COULD RESULT IN A WET RIDE TO SCHOOL AND WORK FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
WIND CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP WHILE THE
WEAK LOW PASSES NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK, THEN A RETURN TO DRY, FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP CANADIAN LOW TO OUR NORTH TRACKS EASTWARD HEADING INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING JUST
BEHIND IT, BUILDING IN OVER THE START OF THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DEEP LOW, MUCH COOLER AIR IS INJECTED IN ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO FLIRT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING THE 540DAM LINE CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT AT
THIS TIME, IT GENERALLY REMAINS ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
WITH THE LATEST RUN. 925 MB TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING/LATE MONDAY NIGHT MAY SINK TO AROUND 0C, THEN ONLY CLIMB
TO AROUND 5C IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS PROFILE WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS BARELY MAKING IT
TO 60F AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THIS COLD AIR AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT THEN SHIFTS MORE SW
BEHIND IT, EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE EXITS TOWARDS THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH JUST BEHIND
IT BUILDING IN TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE RETURN OF SW FLOW
AND DRIER CONDITIONS, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD FOR THE
BACK HALF OF THE WEEK; 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 10C,
SUPPORTING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S, APPROACHING 70F TOWARDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR, EXCEPT SOME PATCHY BR POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL
RADIATOR SPOTS. N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 20Z-00Z. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM AT TIMES. CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CALM CONDITONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS EAST- NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-4 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY, THOUGH
BUILD TO 5+ FEET ACROSS THE OUTER, OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS MONDAY. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...DOOLEY/HRENCECIN
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