437
FXUS61 KBOX 041135
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
735 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ON TAP TODAY UNTIL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
- A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRY, FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MOSTLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ON TAP TODAY UNTIL
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER MAINE WILL PUSH INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY, LENDING CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO LOW 60S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A WEAK LOW THEN PUSHES
EAST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE IS INDICATING THIS WILL BE A
SCATTERED EVENT, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS STAYING OFFSHORE;
HOWEVER, THE NAMNST AND HREF ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, NOT ONLY
INDICATING MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN, BUT IN BRINGING SOME
HEAVIER BANDS INLAND. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE, AND ISLANDS, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 7PM AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRY, FALL-LIKE
CONDITIONS.
A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE JAMES BAY
AND INTO QUEBEC MONDAY WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS SINKS SOUTH INTO NEW
ENGLAND, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING THE 540MB LINE
SINKING WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTHERN NH, BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES
LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C BY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS 925MB TEMPS DROP TO AS LOW AT +1C OR +2C.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 30S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A BRIEF WARM-UP TO THE LOW 70S MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AS THE
HIGH PUSHES EAST THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, PROLONGED WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL MARK THE RETURN OF DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 20Z-00Z.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM AT TIMES. CEILINGS LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS. VFR/OCCASIONAL NEAR
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL. THEN, A CHANCE OF -SHRA DEVELOPS BY 22Z WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CALM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS EAST- NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-4 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY, THOUGH
BUILD TO 5+ FEET ACROSS THE OUTER, OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS MONDAY. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...MCMINN/FT
MARINE...MCMINN
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