513
FXUS61 KBOX 060450
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1250 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WITH CONTINUED FALL TEMPERATURES. AN EARLY LOOK AT
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FAVORS DRY WEATHER, THOUGH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEARS WATCHING FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MOSTLY DRY WITH CONTINUED FALL TEMPERATURES. AN
EARLY LOOK AT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FAVORS DRY WEATHER, THOUGH
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEARS WATCHING FOR RAIN.
TURNING COOLER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
TOWARDS SHELTERED AREAS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
WINDS WILL BE TOO HIGH TO PERMIT MUCH FROST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE
THE CASE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THINKING MORE WIDESPREAD
OPPORTUNITIES FOR FROST ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF
MA AND NORTHERN CT.
A QUIET STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
AS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, THOUGH A SPOT SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE SUNDAY
INTO COLUMBUS DAY AND WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES
AL92 AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP IT SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH TRENDS, WITH NO REASON TO
ALTER OUTDOOR PLANS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FALL-LIKE
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S, EXCEPT UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S, THOUGH COOLER UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF A NW TURN TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS SUBSIDE TOWARDS TUESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING CALM.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS CALM TO START BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUST W-WNW WIND AND AGITATED SEAS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT,
THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. SEAS AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>235-237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/DOOLEY
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BELK/DOOLEY
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