460
FXUS61 KBOX 060558
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
158 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THIS WEEK WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FAVORS DRY WEATHER, THOUGH
WATCHING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THIS WEEK WITH CONTINUED
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FAVORS DRY WEATHER,
THOUGH WATCHING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
COOL, DRY, NW FLOW PERSISTS TODAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVER NY BY THE AFTERNOON AND OVER SNE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SLACKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO A STEADY DECREASE
IN THE BREEZINESS WE'VE SEEN OF LATE. HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS SUNNY
SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION BRINGS A COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD MEANING
HIGHS WON'T GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 11-13C ON MONDAY TO 5-7C ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH'S
INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT MOST OVERNIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MUCH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. LEANING ON MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HANDLES THESE
REGIMES BETTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE, WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 33-37F RANGE. AS SUCH, A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLEST SPOTS.
IT WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WED INTO
THURSDAY BACKING FLOW TO THE SW AND PUMPING UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. WITH THIS COMES
SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL LEADING TO HIGHER HUMIDITY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, LACKING GOOD DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THURSDAY EVENING'S COLD FRONT IS
MOSTLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PRECLUDE
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY FROM AFFECTING SNE.
HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS
CURRENTLY AL92 IN THE GULF WHICH MAY DAMPEN THE END OF OUR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND; CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS QUITE LOW,
THOUGH, AS HIGH PRESSURE COULD VERY WELL DEFLECT IT TO THE
SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE OF A NW TURN TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS SUBSIDE TOWARDS TUESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING CALM.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS CALM TO START BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUST W-WNW WIND AND AGITATED SEAS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT,
THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. SEAS AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SW
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR MAZ002>005-008>011-013-017-018-020-021-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>235-237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW
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