001
FXUS61 KBOX 062007
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY & CHILLY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FROST OUTSIDE THE URBAN
CENTERS. SUNNY & BECOMING BREEZY WED WITH MILDER HIGH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. MUCH MILDER WED NIGHT WITH S-SW
WINDS HOLDING LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.
- VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SPOT SHOWER THURSDAY, OTHERWISE A MILD DAY.
AN EARLY LOOK AT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FAVORS DRY WEATHER,
THOUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEARS WATCHING FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY & CHILLY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FROST OUTSIDE
THE URBAN CENTERS. SUNNY & BECOMING BREEZY WED WITH MILDER HIGH
TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. MUCH MILDER WED NIGHT WITH S-SW
WINDS HOLDING LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
DRY/COOL AIRMASS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST LOW-LYING
AREAS OF WESTERN MA. FROST AND EVEN FREEZE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OUTSIDE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS. THE MILD SPOT
WILL BE DOWNTOWN BOSTON...WHERE LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WED. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO WORK BACK INTO
THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES AND 925T WARMING TO AROUND +10C BY AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. IT WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY WED AFTERNOON WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING SW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH...BUT STILL A VERY
NICE DAY.
A MODEST SOUTHWEST LLJ OF 30-40 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WED NIGHT WILL PREVENT SURFACE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WHAT IS ON TAP
FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SPOT SHOWER THURSDAY, OTHERWISE
A MILD DAY. AN EARLY LOOK AT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FAVORS DRY WEATHER,
THOUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEARS WATCHING FOR RAIN.
THERE AREN'T MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, THOUGH A SPOT SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE NBM DOESN'T SHOW THIS PARTICULARLY WELL, BUT CAMS DO
INDICATE LOW-END POPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED PWATS INTO THE REGION. THUS, FELT IT BEST TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) POPS. THIS IS FAR FROM A WASHOUT, WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION AND DAY REMAINING DRY, THOUGH THE SETUP DOES FAVOR A
FEW SPOT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE SUNDAY INTO COLUMBUS DAY AND
WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF AL92 IS EXPECTED, AND IF NAMED WOULD
BECOME ISAIAS. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY,
WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP IT SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AS A STRONG
1030 MB HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. PLENTY OF TIME
TO WATCH TRENDS, WITH NO REASON TO ALTER OUTDOOR PLANS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FALL-LIKE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S, EXCEPT UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S, THOUGH COOLER UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE
40S ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EVEN COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS
BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WNW WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT W OR COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. WINDS THEN SHIFT
TO THE SW WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH SOME 20-25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE SW WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME SW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WED PM...BUT FELT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL FOR A LATE 2ND/3RD PERIOD EVENT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR MAZ004>006-009-011>013-017-018-020-021-026.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR MAZ002-003-008-010.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/DOOLEY
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/DOOLEY/DS
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