606
FXUS61 KBOX 110442
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1242 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES START 8 PM SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO LAST A BIT LONGER MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN ARRIVES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
- BECOMING DRIER MONDAY. ROUND OF SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOME TIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- QUICK ROUND OF RAIN AROUND MID WEEK, THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS
BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
SUNDAY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH CALM
WINDS, BUT LIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT JUST HOW FAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN
LOWER 40S FOR MOST, UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH AND EAST WITH
THE JET STREAM. AS IT EXITS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND ENTER OUR
WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS, IT'S EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND
PASS NORTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. PWATS WILL LIKELY SURGE TO
NEAR 2.0", MOSTLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE, AND ISLANDS. WITH
RAIN ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON (EARLY PM FOR THE INTERIOR, LATER
PM FOR RI AND EASTERN MA) AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 0.75 INCH TO 1.0 INCH RANGE. IT'S
POSSIBLE SOME HEAVIER RAIN BANDS SET UP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON WHERE OR WHEN EXACTLY THOSE COULD DEVELOP; THEREFORE, SOME
AREAS COULD SEE LOCAL HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS... POSSIBLY UP TO
1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE, AND ISLANDS.
THANKFULLY, THE BULK OF THE LLJ WILL BE KEPT ALOFT AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE WORST OF THE WINDS WILL BE KEPT OFFSHORE AND ON THE
ORDER OF 23 TO 30 KNOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT QUICK MOVING ROUND OF RAIN COMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND EXITING
MONDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO OUR SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
IT ALL ENDS. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE
SOLUTION ENVELOPE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER
LONGER WILL BE TOWARDS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE TIMING ARE POSSIBLE WITH LATER FORECASTS.
OUR REGION THEN HAS A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...QUICK ROUND OF RAIN AROUND MID WEEK, THEN DRY
WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.
OUR REGION SHOULD THEN GET CLIPPED BY A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURES,
EACH TAKING A DIFFERENT TRACK. THE FIRST SHOULD PASS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHERN MA DURING
THE MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AS THIS
FRONT FINALLY MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BRIEFLY TAKE OVER OUR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS UNCERTAIN. A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS CANADA COULD SWING ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE ISSUE CONTINUES
TO BE ONE OF TIMING. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS QUITE DISTANT FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THINKING A SLOWER ONSET TIMING IS MORE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH LATER FORECASTS GIVEN A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW
QUICKLY IT DRIES OUT ON SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS SOME TIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z UPDATE...
THROUGH 12Z: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MUCH OF THE DAY, LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR FROM WEST TO
EAST, AS EARLY AS 20Z FOR WESTERN TERMINALS AND 00Z FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. S/SE WINDS 5-10 KTS WITH RA ARRIVING FROM WEST TO
EAST GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-21Z. RA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, EXITING
FROM WEST TO EAST 10-14Z.
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
N WINDS 5-10 KTS. IFR CIGS TO START, LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST 12-17Z EXCEPT FOR FMH/HYA/ACK WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH
21Z.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS 10-15 KT TODAY BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. SEAS 3 FT OR
LESS ALL WATERS. SUNDAY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE, S/SW 10-15 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS ARRIVE SUNDAY PM, BUILDING SEAS 5
TO 10 FT AND WIND GUSTS 23 TO 30 KNOTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SCAS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING 8PM SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS, INCLUDING COASTAL RI WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLUMBUS DAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 9 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page