650
FXUS61 KBOX 120010
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
810 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN LEFTOVER FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES.
- A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THIS WEEK, FIRST LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN AROUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN LEFTOVER FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
MA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND
PASSES NORTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK LATER TONIGHT. STARTING TO
SEE SOME HEAVIER RAIN BANDS SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND
RI, SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH AND EAST INTO MA, AND SEE SOME RAINFALL
RATES OF UP TO 0.5 INCH PER HOUR COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
LIGHTENING UP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY, THEN FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.75"-1" IS EXPECTED, AS HIGH AS
1.5" ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW THANKS TO SOME MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, ALLOWING FOR A QUICK WARM-UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S, POSSIBLY THE LOW 70S IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THIS WEEK, FIRST LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN AROUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OUR REGION SHOULD THEN GET CLIPPED BY A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURES,
EACH TAKING A DIFFERENT TRACK. THE FIRST SHOULD PASS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHERN MA DURING
THE MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AS THIS
FRONT FINALLY MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING
WEDNESDAY TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS COLD
FRONT MOVING BY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BRIEFLY TAKE OVER OUR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES. THAT SAID, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE STARTED TO
CONVERGE TOWARD A COMMON TRACK AND TIMING SOLUTION. THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN NOON FRIDAY
AND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. SOME QUESTIONS TO HOW QUICKLY IT DRIES
OUT ON SATURDAY, BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS MORE
PROGRESSING THAN THE GFS. FAVORED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THIS
REGARD.
TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST 10-14Z.
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING BY 03Z. THEN PERSISTING INTO THE
MONDAY MORNING PUSH.
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
N WINDS 5-10 KTS. IFR CIGS TO START, LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER 15Z EXCEPT FOR FMH/HYA/ACK WHICH MAY LINGER
THROUGH 21Z.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LIGHT SE WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO ESE/E BEFORE -RA AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING THEIR
WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS BUILD 5 TO 10 FT AND WIND
GUSTS 23 TO 30 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
8PM THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS
6-9 FT ON SOUTHERN WATERS, 3-6 FT ON THE EASTERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...BELK/MCMINN
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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