875
FXUS61 KBTV 090629
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY TODAY, A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 PM EST SATURDAY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM 7AM SUNDAY TO 7AM
MONDAY FOR WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION OF SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
AFTER A QUIET AND COOL AFTERNOON, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE REGION, WITH PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE. PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, WILL
HOLD ON TO THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE, LEADING TO A MORE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FREEZING
RAIN AND THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK,
WITH A COUPLE OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS IN
THESE AREAS, SO BE SURE TO USE PLENTY OF CAUTION IF DRIVING,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THESE ARE SOME OF THE FIRST WINTRY CONDITIONS
OF THE SEASON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION, GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW.
AS WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND HOW QUICKLY
TRANSITION TAKE PLACE, AND THIS FORECAST IS ESPECIALLY. TRICKY
AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONSENSUS AMONGST MODELS. IN ADDITION
TO THE MIXED PRECIPITATION, WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY,
ESPECIALLY ON THE SUMMITS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS, WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK, REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY HEADING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 PM EST SATURDAY...PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST, CHANGING RAIN OVER TO SNOW. MODELS STILL
DIFFER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS CHANGE OVER
OCCURS; THE NAM IN PARTICULAR CAME IN WITH A MUCH WARMER
SOLUTION ON ITS 12Z RUN, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, THE GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A QUICKER TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. EITHER WAY, THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL HAVE TURNED BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THE START
OF THIS PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL
BLEND, WITH EARLY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S (CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY) TO UPPER 40S (SE VT), THEN SLOW COOLING THROUGH THE 30S
FOR ALL BUT FAR SE WINDSOR COUNTY. ALL BUT THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WILL SEE AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 6-8 PM MONDAY, WITH ALL
SNOW TO QUICKLY FOLLOW AS THE EVENING GOES ON. IT'LL BE QUITE
COLD MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TEEN TO MID
20S, AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BULK OF THE SNOW ALONG THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 128 AM EST SUNDAY...NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND 20S OR 30S OVERNIGHTS. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH
PROGRESSIVE FLOW. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BRINGING NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS THE
WHOLE TIME. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VERY CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED.
CURRENTLY CEILINGS VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR, WITH LOWEST
CEILINGS AROUND TWO THOUSAND FEET AT MPV AND SLK. PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOWARDS
EARLY MORNING. WILL HAVE A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES BUT
MOST AREAS WILL START OUT AS SNOW, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE WILL HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET. DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA
AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HANG ON AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THAT AREA. THE SNOW WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO IFR, WHILE THE RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY NOT BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR. CEILINGS WILL
QUICKLY LOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND WILL DROP TO A
LOW MVFR OR IFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, THEN
BECOME EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. MSS WILL AGAIN BE THE EXCEPTION AND
IT SHOULD KEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. LLWS SHOULD DEVELOP MOST
PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHSN.
VETERANS DAY: MVFR AND IFR. LIKELY SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA, LIKELY SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHSN,
LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
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