951
FXUS61 KBTV 091219
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALL TYPES OF PRECIPITATION ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH FREEZING RAIN PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK BY THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 612 AM EST SUNDAY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM 7AM SUNDAY TO 7AM
MONDAY FOR WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION OF SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAINED A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT THOUGH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WET
BULBING HAVE RESULTING IN SNOW EVEN AT 35F SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
RUTLAND ASOS HAS REPORTED UP, WITH MIDDLEBURY, MONTPELIER, AND
BTV REPORTING SNOW AS OF 6 AM. MORNING UPDATE IS TO ADJUST
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND ADJUST PTYPES
ACCORDINGLY. FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY INTACT, AND ADJUSTMENTS
WERE TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS MORNING LIKELY AS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
THE EVENT WILL BE DIFFERENT BETWEEN NEW YORK AND AND VERMONT, SO
FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS DISCUSSION, THE STATES WILL BE BROKEN
INTO TWO.
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN SOUTHERN VERMONT,
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT SHOW A CLEAR
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE AIR COLUMN
FLUCTUATE AROUND 0C, HENCE THE WINTRY MIX. SNOW LEVELS TO THE
NORTH OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTY SHOULD ALLOW FLAKES TO FLY
EVEN INTO THE VALLEY FLOORS FOR A QUICK COATING TO LOCALLY AN
INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY NOON TODAY. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SWITCH OVER ANY WINTRY MIX TO PLAIN RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
VERMONT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN VERMONT, WITH BETTER CHANCES
AROUND THE KILLINGTON AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS RAIN
WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN FOR A SWITCHBACK TO SNOW BY MONDAY EVENING.
IN NEW YORK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE SURFACE DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW FROM CANADA WHICH WILL HELP TO
SUPPORT BETTER THERMAL PROFILES CONDUCIVE FOR PROLONGED WINTRY
MIX. PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN AS SNOW FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING BEFORE WARMER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
INTRUDE FROM THE SOUTH BY NOON. A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND THEN
FREEZING RAIN WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH
PEAKS WILDERNESS FIRST BEFORE WORKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS,
OVERRUNNING AND STRETCHING WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AT 925-850MB
WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LOCKED INTO THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. CONSEQUENTLY, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE LOW GRADUALLY PULLS TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE TOTAL AIR COLUMN WILL COOL BACK BELOW FREEZING
SUPPORTING A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR THE VALLEY. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH LOWERING NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO AN
INTRUSION OF SOME DRIER AIR WHICH WILL CURTAIL SOME OF THE
MOISTURE. A DRY SLOT MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
LIMIT TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS, TOTAL SNOWFALL,
INCLUDING SLEET, WILL BE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. TAKE EXTRA
CAUTION IF TRAVELING ALONG NY-37 AND US-11 TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
ROADS MAY BE SLICK WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON, WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT WEAK
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS LEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 132 AM EST SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY
EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST WITH MUCH COLDER AIR. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO TEENS TO LOW 20S, WITH MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND
0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN INCH TO 3 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN GREENS, PARTICULARLY AT MT. MANSFIELD AND JAY PEAK
WHICH SHOULD DO WELL UNDER THIS EARLY SEASON SETUP. WESTERLY
WINDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEPARTING LOW OCCLUDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MAINE. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH 25 TO 30 IN THE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO ON LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 30S AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, SNOW SHOWERS, AND STRONG CAA
HELP TO FOSTER A GREY AND RAW DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 128 AM EST SUNDAY...NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND 20S OR 30S OVERNIGHTS. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH
PROGRESSIVE FLOW. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BRINGING NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS THE
WHOLE TIME. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VERY CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED.
CURRENTLY CEILINGS VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR, WITH LOWEST
CEILINGS AROUND TWO THOUSAND FEET AT MPV, EFK AND SLK. WILL HAVE
A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SUNDAY WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA AND MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL HANG
ON THE LONGEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
WHERE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HANG ON AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
COLDER IN THAT AREA. THE SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR,
WHILE THE RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AS THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND WILL DROP TO A LOW MVFR OR IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS BY AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. MSS WILL AGAIN BE THE EXCEPTION AND IT SHOULD KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. LLWS SHOULD DEVELOP MOST PLACES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, CHANCE
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
VETERANS DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, LIKELY SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA, LIKELY SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
LIKELY SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
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