482
FXUS61 KBTV 110628
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MORE WINTRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AREAWIDE,
INCLUDING SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRY THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 611 PM EST MONDAY...
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN, CHITTENDEN,
ORLEANS, AND LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN VERMONT FROM 3PM TODAY TO 7AM
TUESDAY. THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS EVENING, LEADING TO TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES.
MODELS WERE A BIT TOO SLOW ON THE TIMING AND HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION 00-06Z VS.20-02Z. ALSO, A FURTHER WESTWARD TREND
IN THE ACTUAL PRECIPITATION THAN MODELS DEPICTED. IN THE
END...LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NC-NE VT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN N CHAMPLAIN VLY NY AS WELL AS CENTRAL-EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS. NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE HEADLINES BUT SOMEWHAT
NOTICEABLE FROM AROUND AN 1-1.5 TO 2-3 INCHES.
NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXCEPT FOR HIGHER NORTHERN PEAKS AFTER
10 PM-MIDNIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MORNING BUT UNTREATED
ROADS MAY BE SLICK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A PRONOUNCED WEST TO EAST TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS GRADIENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A QUICK HITTING
WINTER STORM TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION STREAMS NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAND OF INCREASING 850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS. AS COLDER AIR
MAKES PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES, MOVING
ALONG UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LATEST NBM UNCONDITIONAL
WEATHER TYPE DATA SUGGESTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL INITIALLY BE
NEAR THE NEW YORK/VERMONT BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN ABOUT 4
AND 5 PM WHILE A WINTRY MIX OCCURS NEAR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE GREENS. DURING THE FOLLOWING HOUR, THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN VERMONT WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THEREFORE, A TREACHEROUS
EVENING COMMUTE IS EXPECTED, EVEN IF THE TIMING VARIES SLIGHTLY
FROM THIS IDEA.
WILL NOTE THAT THERE IS LARGER UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE A BURST OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR, AS WELL, BUT WITH SHORTER DURATION AND
LESS TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVE AT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES,
LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO RADAR TRENDS WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH REGARDS TO OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SUCH AS IN ADDISON COUNTY AND
EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, NEW YORK, GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
OUT A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORTHERN AREAS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EXIT SOONER, IT WILL BE DOWN TO PRECIPITATION RATES TO LEAD TO A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN FORECAST. IN
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON, THE PRECIPITATION RATE WILL BE EVEN MORE IMPORTANT TO
REALIZE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS THERE WILL BE A LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
FINALLY, UNFORTUNATELY COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A LINGERING
TONGUE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT.
THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING POCKETS OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN A QUICK TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW, WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VERMONT THIS EVENING. THINK MOST OF THIS
WILL LAST NO LONGER THAN AN HOUR AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION, AND BECAUSE
IT WILL BE FALLING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES/ROADS ARE LARGELY WELL
ABOVE FREEZING WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
MOVING PAST THE STEADY PRECIPITATION, WE'LL SEE A LULL TONIGHT ASIDE
FROM LOCALIZED SNOWFALL IN EXCELLENT WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
CONDITIONS. BY MORNING, WHILE 925 TO 850 MILLIBAR FLOW REMAINS
WESTERLY, A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS
AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE ERIE AMBLES EASTWARD AND
PASSES OUR REGION, A BOOST OF CONVERGENT FLOW WILL OCCUR AND
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA FOLLOWING MORE SCATTERED
MORNING ACTIVITY. POPS GREATLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THROUGH TIME WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE FROM ABOUT A 0.5" TO
1" IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS, HEAVIER SNOW WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS
ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, WHERE SNOWFALL
TOTALS DURING THE DAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE.
TOMORROW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE BY FAR THE COLDEST DAY THIS FALL SO
FAR, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING, BUT THEN A POTENT LAKE-EFFECT
BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NEW YORK, AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
GREENS. IT LOOKS TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT BRIEF
HEAVY SNOW WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS WE FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST
IN FUTURE UPDATES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE CONTINUE TO
EDGE WINDS/GUSTS UP A BIT, WITH GUSTS LOCALLY 30-35 MPH
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS, AS A MODERATELY STRONG
850 MILLIBAR JET FOLLOWS THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 235 PM EST MONDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE,
SUPPORTING A WELL-SATURATED SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID, WITH SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH, ENOUGH
WARMING WILL MAKE FOR A BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUE ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE. AS SUCH, WE EXPECT A VALLEY RAIN SITUATION, OR AT LEAST A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, AS TEMPERATURE RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S DURING THE MORNING AND EVEN PEAK ABOVE 40 AT THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALSO WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
UNTIL THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH, THEN SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WE'LL
HAVE TERRAIN-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES LATE IN THE DAY.
THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH
TEMPERATURES SO MARGINAL FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE VALLEYS,
BUT POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL EXIST,
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 127 AM EST TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS FOR
MID- NOVEMBER. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S AND LOWS LATE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 30S.
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS, WHICH COULD PICK UP 1-2
INCHES OF EXTRA SNOW THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
A MESSY STORM SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DEPICT LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO DRAW IN MILDER AIR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIFT OVER THE ALREADY IN PLACE COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE, PARTICULARLY AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE
COLD AIR CAN GET TRAPPED. WE'LL BE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO PRODUCE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION,
LIKE FREEZING RAIN, ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY, WE MAY ALREADY BE IN THE COOLER SECTOR OF THE STORM,
ALLOWING FOR WRAP AROUND RAIN OR SNOW, DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
ELEVATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER HIGHS TO THE REGION IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING, THOUGH SEVERAL TERMINALS HAVE STARTED
TO OBSERVE PERIODIC VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT. THE SNOW,
GENERALLY CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND A MILE, A
HALF MILE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS, IS SHIFTING NORTHWARDS
TONIGHT, AND CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LIFT AS WELL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT THE 1000-3000
FOOT LEVEL FOR MOST THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY - 04Z WEDNESDAY OR
LATER OUTSIDE OF PBG, WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO RETAIN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM, SLK, EFK, AND MSS ARE THE
MOST LIKELY SITES TO DIP OCCASIONALLY TO 500-900 FEET CEILINGS
THROUGH 08Z-18Z TUESDAY. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE
VARIABLE, BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA, WE COULD SEE MORE SUSTAINED IFR CEILINGS AT THESE SITES
BEFORE THEY SHOW NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT LATER TUESDAY. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
THEY WILL BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS.
THESE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT SLK BUT WILL ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT ANY TERMINAL. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WESTERLY, GUSTING
15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHSN, LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA, LIKELY SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF/SLW
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...STORM
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