764
FXUS61 KBTV 111112
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
612 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A TRAIN OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE, ALLOWING MUCH OF IT TO BE SNOW, BUT WARMER
VALLEYS WILL HAVE INTERVALS OF RAIN MIX IN WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL CREEP INTO THE LOWER 40S. SATURDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY QUIET WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE
SHORT REPRIEVE WILL END ON SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 136 AM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS SHUFFLING OVERHEAD FOR
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR A STRIP OF 4-8" OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND UP ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE GREENS IS NOW WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL GET DISPLACED AS THE
UPPER LOW SETTLES IN. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 OR SO, WITH THE
INVERSION LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ WILL ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE'LL EVEN BE A BET OF DEFORMATION AND
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG THE LEFT SIDE AN OX-BOW SHAPED
JET ARCING BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT SLIDES EAST LATE IN
THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE FLUFFY SNOW WITH FORECAST
RATIOS RANGING ABOUT 15-20:1, BUT INTERVALS NEAR 25:1 ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MEANS
AND STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN FROUDE VALUES
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON, AND THEN SLOWLY
DECREASING ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING. TO SUMMARIZE WHAT THAT
MEANS, SNOW WILL BE FAVORED AT SUMMIT LEVEL, THEN DOWNWIND OF
SUMMITS, AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER BACK TOWARDS THE SUMMITS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER COATING TO 1" IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT, 1-2" ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT, AND THEN THE NORTHERN
GREENS GETTING THE BULK WITH 2-6", HIGHEST AT SUMMITS. AS
MENTIONED, WINDS WILL BE STEADY WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH TODAY.
THIS WILL MAKE PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FEEL LIKE THE SINGLE
DIGITS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILL AND SUMMITS
OCCASIONALLY NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR WIND CHILL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 30S TODAY WITH 20S OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 136 AM EST TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A SHARP TROUGH
APPROACHING. FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. A STREAM OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL WAFFLE
NORTHWARDS, AND THEN BACK SOUTH AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY SLIDES
EAST DURING THE DAY. A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WITH MORE VIGOROUS
VORTICITY UNDER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW ON WESTERN FACING TERRAIN, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT MORE, AND WE'LL SEE MORE MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
COOLING BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS. REINFORCING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
STEADY TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY, OR PERHAPS EVEN DROPPING AS
WE ENTER THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES BECOMES
MORE OF A SUGGESTION. THE MAKE UP OF THE PRESENT SNOW FORECAST
LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, BUT AN EXTRA 2-3" OF SNOW FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 127 AM EST TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS FOR
MID- NOVEMBER. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S AND LOWS LATE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 30S.
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS, WHICH COULD PICK UP 1-2
INCHES OF EXTRA SNOW THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
A MESSY STORM SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DEPICT LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO DRAW IN MILDER AIR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIFT OVER THE ALREADY IN PLACE COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE, PARTICULARLY AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE
COLD AIR CAN GET TRAPPED. WE'LL BE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO PRODUCE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION,
LIKE FREEZING RAIN, ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY, WE MAY ALREADY BE IN THE COOLER SECTOR OF THE STORM,
ALLOWING FOR WRAP AROUND RAIN OR SNOW, DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
ELEVATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER HIGHS TO THE REGION IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
BLOSSOM AGAIN ON THE RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
AS OF 1115Z TUESDAY, CLOUD CEILINGS SIT AROUND 1100-2700 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL, EXCEPT AT PBG WITH 4000-5000 FEET AGL CIGS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OUTSIDE OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WITHIN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WINDS REMAIN
HIGHLY VARIABLE. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WE SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 3 MILES BRIEFLY. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
THESE SHOWERS WILL HIT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, BUT HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
MORNING TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3000 FEET OR BELOW (EXCLUDING
PBG, WHICH STAYS VFR) THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY - 05Z WEDNESDAY,
POTENTIALLY EVEN LATER THAN THAT FOR SOME. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST GUSTING 15-30 KNOTS BY 14Z-18Z OR
SOONER.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHSN, LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA, LIKELY SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...STORM
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