831
FXUS61 KBTV 111815
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A TRAIN OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE, ALLOWING MUCH OF IT TO BE SNOW, BUT WARMER
VALLEYS WILL HAVE INTERVALS OF RAIN MIX IN WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL CREEP INTO THE LOWER 40S. SATURDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY QUIET WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE
SHORT REPRIEVE WILL END ON SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 136 AM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS SHUFFLING OVERHEAD FOR
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR A STRIP OF 4-8" OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND UP ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE GREENS IS NOW WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL GET DISPLACED AS THE
UPPER LOW SETTLES IN. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 OR SO, WITH THE
INVERSION LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ WILL ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE'LL EVEN BE A BET OF DEFORMATION AND
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG THE LEFT SIDE AN OX-BOW SHAPED
JET ARCING BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT SLIDES EAST LATE IN
THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE FLUFFY SNOW WITH FORECAST
RATIOS RANGING ABOUT 15-20:1, BUT INTERVALS NEAR 25:1 ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MEANS
AND STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN FROUDE VALUES
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON, AND THEN SLOWLY
DECREASING ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING. TO SUMMARIZE WHAT THAT
MEANS, SNOW WILL BE FAVORED AT SUMMIT LEVEL, THEN DOWNWIND OF
SUMMITS, AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER BACK TOWARDS THE SUMMITS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER COATING TO 1" IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT, 1-2" ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT, AND THEN THE NORTHERN
GREENS GETTING THE BULK WITH 2-6", HIGHEST AT SUMMITS. AS
MENTIONED, WINDS WILL BE STEADY WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH TODAY.
THIS WILL MAKE PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FEEL LIKE THE SINGLE
DIGITS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILL AND SUMMITS
OCCASIONALLY NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR WIND CHILL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 30S TODAY WITH 20S OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 136 AM EST TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A SHARP TROUGH
APPROACHING. FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. A STREAM OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL WAFFLE
NORTHWARDS, AND THEN BACK SOUTH AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY SLIDES
EAST DURING THE DAY. A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WITH MORE VIGOROUS
VORTICITY UNDER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW ON WESTERN FACING TERRAIN, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT MORE, AND WE'LL SEE MORE MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
COOLING BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS. REINFORCING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
STEADY TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY, OR PERHAPS EVEN DROPPING AS
WE ENTER THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES BECOMES
MORE OF A SUGGESTION. THE MAKE UP OF THE PRESENT SNOW FORECAST
LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, BUT AN EXTRA 2-3" OF SNOW FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH
HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF HEADING INTO SATURDAY, WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIER, ALTHOUGH CHILLY, WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A COMPLEX LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SOME WINTRY MIX
AND SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT WHERE COLDER AIR IS MORE
APT TO REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY FALL AS
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ALTHOUGH WE MAY QUICKLY
TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOWFALL AS THE LOW EXITS WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. AS WITH ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT IN REGARDS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR ANY
LOCATION, BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME OF
THE WINTRY MIX WORDING IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER, ESPECIALLY IF YOU MAY BE ON
THE ROAD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ON THE COOL SIDE DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS, RANGING FROM VFR
TO LIFR, CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY
DRIVEN BY VISIBILITIES WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS, WHILE CEILINGS HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED MVFR AROUND 2500 FT AGL OR SO. GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS, SEVERAL TEMPO GROUPS WERE UTILIZED
TO CAPTURE THE PERIODS OF WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED, BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARDS 12Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
LIKELY SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...KREMER
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