981
FXUS61 KBTV 120617
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AND SOME SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING
ABOUT THE FREEZING MARK UP TO ABOUT 40. SO SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX
WITH RAIN, TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL TONIGHT AS
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS REMAIN. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST
THURSDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
HOLDING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK TO ABOUT 40 DURING
THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER TOWARDS THE SUMMITS WITH A
RELATIVELY QUIET SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE WE RETURN TO ELEVATION DEPENDENT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 114 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE 500MB HEIGHTS MAY NOT SHOW
MUCH OF A TROUGH, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CURL
APPROACHING LAKE HURON. BOTH THE UPPER VORT, AND ITS ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER,
WE WILL STILL OBSERVE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS. FIRST, CHANCES
INCREASE AS WEST FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND CAUSES
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO SLIDE NORTH. THEN, BROADER SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A SMALL PATCH OF FGEN WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE SNOW
ON THE FRONT END, AND THEN COLD ADVECTION IN WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALONG A STRONGER VORT TRACKING EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING CLOSE TO 40 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SO SOME
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHIFT TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DOESN'T OCCUR UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, AND
SO WE WILL HAVE LESS ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN
TOP OUT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO ABOUT 40 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. BETWEEN THE
TWO DAYS, WE'RE STILL ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER COATING TO 1" OF SNOW
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS, 1-2" ALONG FOOTHILLS, 2-5" FOR FAVORED
NORTHWEST SLOPES, AND 4-7" ACROSS NORTHERN SUMMITS ABOVE 3000".
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 114 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS STARTS TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING BY LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A COOL DAY IN THE 30S.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY THIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SNOW WILL
TAPER TO THE SUMMITS WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS AS WE HAVE A BRIEF
QUIET PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 114 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DURING THE
DAYTIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVERHEAD. A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WE'LL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS
FORECAST WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S AND
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAY
BE DECEIVING, HOWEVER, AS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RATHER COLD WITH
THE HIGH LIKELY ARRIVING LATER IN THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FEATURES MULTI LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO, QUEBEC, AND LIKELY JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK
AND VERMONT INTO MAINE THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF SOME WINTRY MIX AND SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLDER AIR IS MORE APT TO REMAIN AT THE SURFACE.
HIGHEST CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
BY THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY, WE SHOULD BE SEEING RAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AREA CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD AIR SWEEPS IN BEHIND THE LOW, STRAIGHTENING OUT ATMOSPHERIC
SOUNDINGS IN THE PROCESS. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 40S
BEFORE FALLING QUICKLY. SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT, WE ANTICIPATE BACK END
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
THROUGH MONDAY AND EVEN POTENTIALLY TUESDAY AS WE SIT UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND GET SWIPED BY VARIOUS SHORTWAVES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COOL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CIGS WITH SOME STILL REMAINING -SHSN AT NEAR MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN
TOWARDS 12Z. WEST WINDS 10-20 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AND
SHIFT TO SW-S BY 12Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA,
DEFINITE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHSN,
CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN,
CHANCE FZRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, LIKELY
FZRA, LIKELY SN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...KREMER/SLW
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