623
FXUS61 KBTV 121901
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND BECOME LIMITED TO THE SUMMITS, WITH
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN, WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND AREAS EAST OF
THE GREENS REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE WE RETURN TO ELEVATION
DEPENDENT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 157 PM EST WEDNESDAY...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION
THIS EVENING, REINVIGORATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MORE NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE VALLEYS COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX TO FALL, WHILE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS. AS
THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST FROM THE REGION, SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN
LARGELY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH A COATING TO 1"
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS, 1-2" ALONG FOOTHILLS, 2-5" FOR THE
FAVORED NORTHWESTERN SLOPES AND 5-10" ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUMMITS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR RAIN WITHIN ANY SHOWERS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 157 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY, PRIMARILY TIED TO THE HIGHER SUMMITS. AS
MOISTURE THINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS
THE HIGHER SUMMITS WILL WANE, WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE FAIRLY MINOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE DECREASING SHOWERS
AND MOISTURE. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY, WITH MOST PLACES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 157 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. THE
POSITION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW SUPPORT COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH A
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. MODEL THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ARE INDICATIVE OF FREEZING RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE COLDEST AIR WILL POOL
BEFORE BEING SCOURED OUT BY SOUTHERLY FLOW. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR
DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED
WINDS WILL LIKELY DEEPEN THE WARM LAYER MORE QUICKLY SHIFTING PRECIP
CHARACTER MORE TOWARDS RAIN. STILL, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD TO START WITH, SO SOME FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR WARMING PROFILES SUNDAY
SWITCHING MOST LOCATIONS TO RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY
REMAINING ALL SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. MODEL OUTPUT FAVORS COLD TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS ON WESTERN SLOPES. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
RANGE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WITH 20S IN GENERAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE UPPER TEENS ARE MORE
LIKELY. .
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THERE IS A MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH CIGS/VIS VARYING IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IS ENJOYING THE FEWEST ISSUES AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO SWITCH SHOWERS TO MAINLY RAIN, BUT A FEW
SHOWER ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO SWITCH PRECIP
CHARACTER BACK TO FROZEN AT TIMES. AS SUCH, ANTICIPATE A CHALLENGING
PERIOD OF FLIGHT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER 21-23Z,
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH RESULTING IN MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LLWS AT SLK/RUT AS
WINDS TURN ALOFT MORE WESTERLY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN CANADA, SURFACE
FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY BY AROUND 06Z WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING. SLK WILL LIKELY STAY IFR WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS WHILE BTV
HAS SOME QUESTIONS OF WHETHER FLOW WILL BE BLOCKED ENOUGH TO BACK
LOWER CIGS WESTWARD OFF THE GREENS AS LAKE ENHANCES MOISTURE IN LOW
LEVELS. FOR NOW, KEPT VCSH, BUT COULD REASONABLY SEE SOME SHOWERS
BLOSSOM IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME AS FLOW BECOMES LIGHTER AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE WEST. CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED 12-18Z THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE PATTERN ALOFT.
COULD SEE HIT/MISS IFR SNOW/RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN, SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
FZRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
FZRA, LIKELY RA, CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN, LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND
25 KNOTS SUSTAINED, WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THEY SHIFT TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD
MARINE...KREMER
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