135
FXUS61 KBTV 122337
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND BECOME LIMITED TO THE SUMMITS, WITH
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN, WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND AREAS EAST OF
THE GREENS REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE WE RETURN TO ELEVATION
DEPENDENT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 627 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE, MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS. PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN SNOW, THOUGH SO FAR
IMPACTS HAVE NOT BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE PAST COUPLE
EVENINGS. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES,
ALLOWING ROADS TO GENERALLY REMAIN WET. HOWEVER, ROADS MAY
BECOME ICY IN ANY AREAS THAT DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW. SO
MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION
THIS EVENING, REINVIGORATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MORE NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE VALLEYS COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX TO FALL, WHILE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS. AS
THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST FROM THE REGION, SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN
LARGELY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH A COATING TO 1"
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS, 1-2" ALONG FOOTHILLS, 2-5" FOR THE
FAVORED NORTHWESTERN SLOPES AND 5-10" ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUMMITS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR RAIN WITHIN ANY SHOWERS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 157 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY, PRIMARILY TIED TO THE HIGHER SUMMITS. AS
MOISTURE THINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS
THE HIGHER SUMMITS WILL WANE, WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE FAIRLY MINOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE DECREASING SHOWERS
AND MOISTURE. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY, WITH MOST PLACES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 157 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. THE
POSITION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW SUPPORT COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH A
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. MODEL THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ARE INDICATIVE OF FREEZING RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE COLDEST AIR WILL POOL
BEFORE BEING SCOURED OUT BY SOUTHERLY FLOW. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR
DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED
WINDS WILL LIKELY DEEPEN THE WARM LAYER MORE QUICKLY SHIFTING PRECIP
CHARACTER MORE TOWARDS RAIN. STILL, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD TO START WITH, SO SOME FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR WARMING PROFILES SUNDAY
SWITCHING MOST LOCATIONS TO RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY
REMAINING ALL SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. MODEL OUTPUT FAVORS COLD TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS ON WESTERN SLOPES. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
RANGE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WITH 20S IN GENERAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE UPPER TEENS ARE MORE
LIKELY. .
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...THERE IS A MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREAD
EASTWARD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
IN BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO IFR. THE MOST LIKELY SITES TO
SEE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE KSLK/KMSS/KMPV/KEFK. PRECIPITATION
WILL MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW, BUT RAIN MAY MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN 04Z-08Z,
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE
MVFR TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING
THOUGH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMSS AND
KBTV. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN TRENDING TOWARD
W/NW AND INCREASING TO 7-14 KT AFTER 14Z. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT
COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE FZRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA, CHANCE
FZRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA, LIKELY
SHSN, DEFINITE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND
25 KNOTS SUSTAINED, WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THEY SHIFT TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD/HASTINGS
MARINE...KREMER
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