388
FXUS61 KBTV 130621
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WHILE
SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
RELATIVELY QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. HOWEVER, AFTER SUNSET AND HEADING INTO SUNDAY, A
WINTRY MIX AND RAIN WILL RETURN. COLD, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EST THURSDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW,
RAIN AND SNOW ACTIVITY WON'T BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER COOL
DAY NEAR THE FREEZING POINT UP TO ABOUT 40 IS EXPECTED. STRONG
NEGATIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH MORE VORTICITY
EMBEDDED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW KEEPING
SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN SLOPES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ALONG NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY, AND COULD FAIL TO REACH
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ANY 40S
POSSIBLE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EST THURSDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH NORTH FLOW
BRINGING IN TEENS TO MID 20S. BETTER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
DEPART. LOW ELEVATION SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN VERMONT POSSIBLE. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NICEST
DAY IN A WHILE. RELATIVELY (STRONG EMPHASIS ON RELATIVELY) CLEAR
SKIES WILL LET US SEE THE SUN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 157 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. THE
POSITION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW SUPPORT COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH A
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. MODEL THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ARE INDICATIVE OF FREEZING RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE COLDEST AIR WILL POOL
BEFORE BEING SCOURED OUT BY SOUTHERLY FLOW. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR
DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED
WINDS WILL LIKELY DEEPEN THE WARM LAYER MORE QUICKLY SHIFTING PRECIP
CHARACTER MORE TOWARDS RAIN. STILL, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD TO START WITH, SO SOME FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR WARMING PROFILES SUNDAY
SWITCHING MOST LOCATIONS TO RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY
REMAINING ALL SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. MODEL OUTPUT FAVORS COLD TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS ON WESTERN SLOPES. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
RANGE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WITH 20S IN GENERAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE UPPER TEENS ARE MORE
LIKELY. .
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...THERE IS A MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREAD
EASTWARD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
IN BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO IFR. THE MOST LIKELY SITES TO
SEE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE KSLK/KMSS/KMPV/KEFK. PRECIPITATION
WILL MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW, BUT RAIN MAY MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN 04Z-08Z,
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE
MVFR TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING
THOUGH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMSS AND
KBTV. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN TRENDING TOWARD
W/NW AND INCREASING TO 7-14 KT AFTER 14Z. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT
COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE FZRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA, CHANCE
FZRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA, LIKELY
SHSN, DEFINITE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD/HASTINGS
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