513
FXUS61 KBTV 130627
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WHILE
SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
RELATIVELY QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. HOWEVER, AFTER SUNSET AND HEADING INTO SUNDAY, A
WINTRY MIX AND RAIN WILL RETURN. COLD, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EST THURSDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW,
RAIN AND SNOW ACTIVITY WON'T BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER COOL
DAY NEAR THE FREEZING POINT UP TO ABOUT 40 IS EXPECTED. STRONG
NEGATIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH MORE VORTICITY
EMBEDDED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW KEEPING
SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN SLOPES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ALONG NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY, AND COULD FAIL TO REACH
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ANY 40S
POSSIBLE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EST THURSDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH NORTH FLOW
BRINGING IN TEENS TO MID 20S. BETTER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
DEPART. LOW ELEVATION SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN VERMONT POSSIBLE. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NICEST
DAY IN A WHILE. RELATIVELY (STRONG EMPHASIS ON RELATIVELY) CLEAR
SKIES WILL LET US SEE THE SUN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 126 AM EST THURSDAY...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A STORM SYSTEM
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THAT MAY BRING WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS QUEBEC,
DRAGGING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
HAVE MILDER AIR LIFTING ABOVE COLD SURFACE AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE WARMING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT,
STARTING OUT THEIR COLDEST IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, INCREASING
TO THE 30S BY SUNRISE WEST OF THE GREENS. EAST OF THE GREENS, COLD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRAPPED AND POOLED FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SATURDAY NIGHT
SOLUTIONS, AND THE NAM12 IS SHOWING A SHORTER PERIOD (THAN THE GFS
FOR EXAMPLE) OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO RAIN OR
SNOW. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AROUND LONG ISLAND AND COLD AIR RUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MORE
QUICKLY.
ALL THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IN TERMS OF FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS, LOCATION,
AND DURATION. THE ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, AND AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO SEE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WITH
MODEL BLEND PROBABILITIES SHOWING 10-30% CHANCE OF 0.1" POSSIBLE.
THE TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY AROUND 7 PM SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S LATE SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR
MOSTLY RAIN PRECIP, BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON, RETURNING SNOW TO THE REGION
STARTING AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WIDER
VALLEYS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING MID TO LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN HIGHS MODERATING TO THE 30S
AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AND
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC TO OUR NORTH, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS OUR
PROJECTED LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, ALL SITES SHOULD
HAVE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS, IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW FORM, WILL PERSIST
ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BRINGING WITH THEM THE
RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITIES (1-4 MILES) WHEREVER THEY OCCUR.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AT EFK AND PERHAPS SLK IN THE
LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY.
CEILINGS VARY FROM 1200-4000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITH SOME SITES
REPORTING SCATTERED LAYERS OF CLOUDS AROUND 200-1000 FEET AGL. BTV,
SLK, MPV, AND EFK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN 3000
FEET OR BELOW OVER MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND BOTH SLK AND EFK
ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE CEILINGS FALL BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z THURSDAY. PBG, RUT, AND MSS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY AROUND 21Z THURSDAY - 03Z FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON THIS
TIMING YET AS MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY
PROLONG LOW CEILINGS. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE
MOST PART, THOUGH RUT HOLDS ONTO A GUST 10-15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WE'LL SEE WINDS GET GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS BY
ABOUT 08Z THURSDAY, TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING 12Z-
18Z, WITH SOME NEW YORK SITES GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
RA, DEFINITE FZRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, LIKELY
SN, DEFINITE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...STORM
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