887
FXUS61 KBTV 131138
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WHILE
SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
RELATIVELY QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. HOWEVER, AFTER SUNSET AND HEADING INTO SUNDAY, A
WINTRY MIX AND RAIN WILL RETURN. COLD, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EST THURSDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW,
RAIN AND SNOW ACTIVITY WON'T BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER COOL
DAY NEAR THE FREEZING POINT UP TO ABOUT 40 IS EXPECTED. STRONG
NEGATIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH MORE VORTICITY
EMBEDDED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW KEEPING
SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN SLOPES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ALONG NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY, AND COULD FAIL TO REACH
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ANY 40S
POSSIBLE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EST THURSDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH NORTH FLOW
BRINGING IN TEENS TO MID 20S. BETTER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
DEPART. LOW ELEVATION SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN VERMONT POSSIBLE. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NICEST
DAY IN A WHILE. RELATIVELY (STRONG EMPHASIS ON RELATIVELY) CLEAR
SKIES WILL LET US SEE THE SUN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 126 AM EST THURSDAY...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A STORM SYSTEM
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THAT MAY BRING WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS QUEBEC,
DRAGGING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
HAVE MILDER AIR LIFTING ABOVE COLD SURFACE AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE WARMING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT,
STARTING OUT THEIR COLDEST IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, INCREASING
TO THE 30S BY SUNRISE WEST OF THE GREENS. EAST OF THE GREENS, COLD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRAPPED AND POOLED FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SATURDAY NIGHT
SOLUTIONS, AND THE NAM12 IS SHOWING A SHORTER PERIOD (THAN THE GFS
FOR EXAMPLE) OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO RAIN OR
SNOW. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AROUND LONG ISLAND AND COLD AIR RUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MORE
QUICKLY.
ALL THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IN TERMS OF FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS, LOCATION,
AND DURATION. THE ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, AND AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO SEE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WITH
MODEL BLEND PROBABILITIES SHOWING 10-30% CHANCE OF 0.1" POSSIBLE.
THE TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY AROUND 7 PM SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S LATE SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR
MOSTLY RAIN PRECIP, BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON, RETURNING SNOW TO THE REGION
STARTING AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WIDER
VALLEYS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING MID TO LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN HIGHS MODERATING TO THE 30S
AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AND
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING MAINE
AND PULLING AWAY FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT, WE'LL SEE
LESS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. CEILING
LEVELS VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON LOCATION. PBG, MPV, AND RUT ARE
THREE SITES SPORTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER, THESE SITES COULD SEE CEILINGS LOWERING TO 2000-3000
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BY AROUND 15Z-16Z TODAY, IF NOT SOONER.
VALLEY SITES PBG AND RUT WILL LIKELY SEE 3000-4000 FEET CIGS BY
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY WHEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW EXITS THE REGION.
MPV IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO ITS LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. BTV AND MSS ARE ALREADY REPORTING CIGS
AROUND 2000-3000 FEET AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z-04Z FRIDAY, LIFTING WITH PBG AND RUT. OUR LAST
TWO SITES, SLK AND EFK, HAVE THE LOWEST CEILINGS OF ALL THIS
MORNING AROUND 500-1000 FEET. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT AT THESE
SITES TO 1000-2000 FEET AROUND 14Z-18Z TODAY, LIKELY BOUNCING
UP AND DOWN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CEILING LEVELS ON THE WAY
THERE. THESE TWO ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY 3000 FEET OR LOWER
FOR CIGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VISIBILITIES ARE AGAIN HARD TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE
THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS AND RESULTING VIS RESTRICTIONS. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 AND TEMPO LINES TO TRY AND PORTRAY WHERE THE
GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS WILL BE. EFK IS CURRENTLY
LOOKING THE BEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH 70% CHANCE AROUND
15Z-17Z TODAY, BUT ANY SITE HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY,
WHETHER RAIN, SNOW, OR A MIX. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, 5 KNOTS OR LESS, BUT SHOULD BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND TURNING WESTERLY, THEN
NORTHWESTERLY, BY 14Z-18Z, WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT SLK OF 15-20
KNOTS AROUND 16Z-22Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
LIKELY FZRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, LIKELY
SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...STORM
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