618
FXUS61 KBTV 131846
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
VALLEY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME WILL WIND DOWN TO SOME MOUNTAIN LIGHT SNOW ON
FRIDAY, AS DRIER AIR FINALLY WIPES OUT OUR PERSISTENT
CLOUDINESS. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AND RAIN. SHARPLY
COLDER AND BREEZY WEATHER, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW,
IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY, AND ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 146 PM EST THURSDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
ABOVE 1500 FEET ELEVATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS
PRESENT UPSTREAM IN EASTERN ONTARIO, INDICATIVE OF HOW FUTURE
PRECIPITATION WILL TREND TO BE STRONGLY TERRAIN-DRIVEN WITH
VALLEYS DRYING OUT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACK REGION AND HI GIVEN LIGHT INTENSITY
OF PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE FREEZING SURFACES. THE FREEZING LEVEL
WILL ONLY SLOWLY LOWER IN A WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
(850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE SLIPPING FROM NEAR -7C TO -8C).
AS WET BULB TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING WITH
COMBINATION OF DRYING PROFILES AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES,
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW, AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY MIDNIGHT. BLOCKED FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT, BUT THINK THE MAIN POTENTIAL TRAVEL HAZARD IS
ASSOCIATED WITH WET CONDITIONS OUT THERE. UNTREATED ROADS WOULD
HAVE THE RISK OF BECOMING ICY OVERNIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE ARE LIKELY BELOW
FREEZING AREAWIDE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE
PERSISTENT SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW TOMORROW. BLENDED QPF LOOKS REASONABLE SHOWING
LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW. THAT BEING SAID, SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN TALLER CLOUDS (MODEST WINTERTIME
CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG INDICATED). SO A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THE DAY. QUIET WEATHER THEN IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS A VERY NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUDINESS RECENTLY, WE HAVE NOT HAD MANY COLD NIGHTS AND FOR MANY
LOCATIONS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE LOWEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR;
ASIDE FROM THE WIDER VALLEYS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN
MIXED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 146 PM EST THURSDAY...FOLLOWING A COLD START TO THE DAY,
SATURDAY WILL SEE AMPLE WARMING ALOFT AS 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
RISE FROM NEAR THE 20TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE TO THE 50TH-75TH
PERCENTILE (WESTERN AREAS HIGHER) BY EVENING. SHALLOW COLD AND DRY
AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPES AS A
FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED AREA OF RAIN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS AMONGST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO BE
UNDERDISPERSIVE; FOR EXAMPLE, MOST ECMWF MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED
JUST NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST- NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK NEAR COASTAL MAINE, WHILE GFS MEMBERS ARE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PRIMARILY LOW (PASSING NEAR OR NORTHWEST
OF MONTREAL). THESE DIFFERENCES KEEP THE PREDICTABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TYPE LOW, AS THERMAL PROFILES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH A
ECMWF-SOLUTION WHILE A GEFS/GFS TRACK WOULD FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND NO SNOW. THINK THE TREND HAS BEEN
TOWARDS FREEZING RAIN BEING MORE LIKELY WITH ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. IF CONFIDENCE
OF MAINLY FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE, ANTICIPATE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ASSOCIATED WITH ICY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INITIALLY IN POCKETS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND LATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. THE TIMEFRAME REGARDLESS OF LOW TRACK IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH GREATEST RISK ROUGHLY FROM 7 PM TO 1 AM.
GIVEN GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WARMING, COVERAGE OF SUB-FREEZING ROADS
MAY DECREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BEING MORE CONFINED TO
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 0.25" TO 0.5",
WITH GREATEST SPREAD NOTED OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS DUE TO
UNCERTAIN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS; PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE
LIMITED AS 850-925 MILLIBAR FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE RELATIVELY LOW QPF AND GRADUAL WARMING
OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IS CONSISTENT WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF 0.1" OR GREATER OF ICE ACCUMULATION; HOWEVER, THINK
WITH LIMITED SOUTHERLY FLOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
SCOUR AND HAVE KEPT INITIAL STORM TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 0.2"
IN AREAS PRONE TO SEEING STUBBORN SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOPEFULLY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS SUCH THAT
PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION CAN PROVIDE A USEFUL REASONABLE WORST CASE
SCENARIO/HIGH END AMOUNT FOR ICE AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 146 PM EST THURSDAY...COLD AIR SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ALL AREAS OF VERMONT
TO SWITCH COMPLETELY TO A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO. MODEL PROFILES
SUPPORT THIS TRANSITION EVEN EAST OF THE GREENS BY LATE MORNING.
BIGGEST QUESTIONS REMAIN RELATED TO STORM TRACK WHICH WOULD
AFFECT THE NORTH/SOUTH EXTENT OF ANY POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
FREEZING PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, MODELS STRONGLY FAVOR THE
RETURN OF MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTING COOLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE SOME LOW 40S ARE POSSIBLE AND 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY
FLOW COMPONENT FAVORS CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES, ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMINGLY RETURNING NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TO SIMILAR WEATHER TRENDS THAT ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, NO STRONG WAVES OR IMPULSES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED, SO
SHOWERS MAY MORE LIMITED IN EXTENT TO TERRAIN AND UPSLOPE
AREAS.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS REMAINS IN
THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME BEFORE INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR SLK/MPV/EFK OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWER
CHANCES DOWN FOR FRIDAY, BUT COULD SEE A FEW BLOSSOM AS DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AIDS IN STEEPENING NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES. SHOULD
SHOWERS OCCUR AND MOVE DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL, IFR CIG/VIS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS EXCEPT AT BTV WHERE SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA, LIKELY
FZRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, LIKELY
SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD
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