550
FXUS61 KBTV 140625
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOME MOUNTAIN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATE TOMORROW, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AND RAIN. SHARPLY COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW, IS ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY, AND ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1253 AM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ROTATES OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE'LL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME PERSISTENT
SHALLOW MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMBINING WITH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FROM CHARLOTTE,
MONKTON, AND HINESBURG ALL THE WAY TO GRANVILLE AND ROCHESTER,
VERMONT. THESE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A QUICK INCH OF
SNOWFALL IF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE. A QUICK
DUSTING COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY, BUT MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND UNDER THE POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BAND. UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 30S AND LOWER 40S, A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID NOVEMBER.
TONIGHT, WE COULD HAVE OCCASIONAL CLEARING IN THE VALLEYS,
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS AND 20S,
AGAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS WE'VE SEEN SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ALREADY, WE MAY BE IN FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FREEZING FOG IN PLACES AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
DURING THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1253 AM EST FRIDAY...AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FREEZING FOG, SATURDAY SHOULD
HAVE WARMING MID LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CHILLY AND BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY HITTING THE 30S AND LOWER 40S IN
THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS AND TIMING AMONGST MODELS
HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH
CONSENSUS BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS, THEN TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 0.35-1.00" SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MOST LIKELY FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING FROM 4 PM
SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INCH THE
TIMING SLIGHTLY FASTER.
FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH, THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO THE MASSENA, NEW
YORK, AREA, WHILE MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, THE REST OF ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY, AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY LOOK TO ESCAPE
MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ICE. OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, AND AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS INCLUDING
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, WHERE WE COULD SEE ICE AMOUNTS OF A TRACE
TO 0.15 INCHES. AS THE FORECAST FAVORS PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF ICE SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING RAIN SUNDAY, SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN RELATIVELY MINIMAL WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN INCH FOR
MOST, PERHAPS A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AND 40S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE A MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN THE ACCUMULATION OF
ANY IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15 TO 30
KNOTS, POTENTIALLY HIGH ON THE MOUNTAINS, IN THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO A LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1253 AM EST FRIDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY,
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TIME OF DAY AND ELEVATION WILL
OCCUR AT VARIOUS INTERVALS WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ON THE
BACKSIDE. THE LAST WILL SHIFT EAST AROUND NEXT THURSDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY. TOWARDS NEXT
FRIDAY, A SYSTEM WITH MEAGER MOISTURE WILL TRY CROSSING EAST, BUT IT
APPEARS ANY LARGER SCALE SYSTEM WILL WAIT UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER WHAT WE'VE
BEEN OBSERVING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS HEADING
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A TREND TO WARM
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...OUTSIDE SOME 1/2SM FZFG AT KRUT, MOST
LOCATIONS ARE MVFR OR VFR. THERE'S A SMALL CHANCE SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND HAVE
NOTED VCFG FOR KMSS. ADDITIONALLY, CEILINGS SHOULD FALL SOME AT KSLK
BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE, AND SO A
TEMPO AT THIS TIME TO INDICATE 700 FT CEILINGS WITH SLIGHT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN CASE PARTIAL CLEARING REACHES THAT AREA
TOO. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL ABOUT 10Z-14Z
AS NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BEGIN PICKING UP MORE SPEED TO 5 TO 8
KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO 4000-6000 FT AGL, BUT THEN
THOSE TRENDS BEGIN REVERSING AROUND 19-21Z. MOST TERMINALS WILL FALL
BACK TOWARDS 1200-2500 FT AGL CEILINGS. ABOUT THAT SAME TIME, A
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE, THE
FORECAST OPTS FOR PROB30S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 3-5SM. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT AFTER 00Z, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA, CHANCE FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
RA, DEFINITE FZRA, CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA, LIKELY
SN, CHANCE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...STORM
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...HAYNES
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