147
FXUS61 KBTV 141753
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOME MOUNTAIN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATE TOMORROW, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AND RAIN. SHARPLY COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW, IS ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY, AND ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1253 AM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ROTATES OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE'LL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
PERSISTENT SHALLOW MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMBINING
WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S MAY RESULT IN
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FROM
CHARLOTTE, MONKTON, AND HINESBURG ALL THE WAY TO GRANVILLE AND
ROCHESTER, VERMONT. THESE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A QUICK
INCH OF SNOWFALL IF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE. A
QUICK DUSTING COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY, BUT MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND UNDER THE POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BAND. UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 30S AND LOWER 40S, A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID NOVEMBER.
TONIGHT, WE COULD HAVE OCCASIONAL CLEARING IN THE VALLEYS,
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS AND 20S,
AGAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS WE'VE SEEN SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ALREADY, WE MAY BE IN FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FREEZING FOG IN PLACES AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
DURING THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1253 AM EST FRIDAY...AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FREEZING FOG, SATURDAY SHOULD
HAVE WARMING MID LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CHILLY AND BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY HITTING THE 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS AND TIMING AMONGST MODELS HAVE
COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH
CONSENSUS BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS, THEN TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 0.35-1.00" SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MOST LIKELY FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING FROM 4 PM
SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INCH THE
TIMING SLIGHTLY FASTER.
FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH, THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO THE MASSENA, NEW
YORK, AREA, WHILE MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, THE REST OF ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY, AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY LOOK TO ESCAPE
MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ICE. OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, AND AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS INCLUDING
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, WHERE WE COULD SEE ICE AMOUNTS OF A TRACE
TO 0.15 INCHES. AS THE FORECAST FAVORS PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF ICE SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING RAIN SUNDAY, SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN RELATIVELY MINIMAL WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN INCH FOR
MOST, PERHAPS A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AND 40S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE A MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN THE ACCUMULATION OF
ANY IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15 TO 30
KNOTS, POTENTIALLY HIGH ON THE MOUNTAINS, IN THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO A LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1252 PM EST FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL START OUT WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF MAINE
WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION, AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EVENTUALLY WIND DOWN AS WELL. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER OUR
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
FOR NOW THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH MODEL TO MODEL OR RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR HEIGHTS,
1600- 4100 FEET. WINDS ARE UNDER 10 KTS, BUT VARY BETWEEN
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH MOST TERMINALS HOLDING ONTO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SOME LIGHT SNOW AT SLK, BUT STILL VFR
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES
WILL DEVELOP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY, EXCEPTIONS BEING PBG
AND RUT WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR. PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
REGION BEYOND THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
RA, DEFINITE FZRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SN,
DEFINITE RA, CHANCE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT. CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>021.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ026-027-030-031-034.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...STORM
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
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