092
FXUS61 KBTV 142204
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
504 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS ON A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING
TOMORROW, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AND RAIN. IMPACTS CONTINUE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS
SHARPLY COLDER AND BREEZY WEATHER MOVES IN SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW WITH UPSLOPE AREAS SEEING SOME
ACCUMULATION AS WELL AS SOME CHILLY WIND CHILLS. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 501 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY
FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREEN
MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD, THEN DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE VALLEY FLOORS, BUT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE MAINLY TO POTENTIAL FOR ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW
YORK FIRST BEFORE MOVING ACROSS VERMONT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE GREENS.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK RIDGING QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING, DON'T EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE DESPITE
RIDGING ROLLING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A FEW AREAS OF FREEZING
FOG EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS
THAT IT WILL BE OF LESSER EXTENT THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE MORE SPARSE. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE IN
EARNEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO CLIMB TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE,
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TREND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER NOON. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE PELLETS AT MASSENA AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ESSEX/CLINTON COUNTIES BEFORE A TRANSITION TO RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURE FALL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 107 PM EST FRIDAY...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVES IN
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. UP TO 0.2" OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE WITH A WINTRY MIX ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. MODEL TRENDS
FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO TRACK HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES OF NEW YORK
THROUGH HIGHER ELEVATION OF CENTRAL VERMONT DOWN INTO
ORANGE/WASHINGTON/CALEDONIA COUNTIES. MASSENA WILL ALSO BE
SUSCEPTIBLE, BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO QUICKLY TURN WITH
THE LOWS PASSAGE GIVEN ITS TRACK IN THE VICINITY OF THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY; THIS TRAJECTORY WILL LIKELY TRUNCATE THE PERIOD
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DISRUPTING THE NEEDED COLD-AIR
REPLACEMENT TO SUSTAIN AN EXTENDED DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN.
THIS IS THE REASON FOR TOTALS BEING LOWER FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A LITTLE OVER A TENTH IN THE VICINITY OF MASSENA, NY. A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, WINDS WILL HELP TRANSPORT
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE COLD AIR SLAMS IN TO BRING
SNOW LEVELS DOWN. AS SUCH, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
IN NORTHEASTERN VERMONT BEFORE SNOW MOVES IN. THIS COULD AID IN
TRAFFICABILITY AND DISPERSE SOME OF THE ICE ON SURFACES.
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE SYSTEM. SNOW
SHOULD BE REACHING ALL VALLEY SURFACES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SYSTEM IS EJECTING. QPF WAS INCREASE IN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
COULD SEE 2-5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS. WINDS AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL WITH GRADIENTS
SUPPORTING GUSTS TO 20-40 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TOPPING OUT 20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
TEENS/LOW 20S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1252 PM EST FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL START OUT WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF MAINE
WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION, AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EVENTUALLY WIND DOWN AS WELL. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER OUR
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
FOR NOW THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH MODEL TO MODEL OR RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR HEIGHTS,
1600- 4100 FEET. WINDS ARE UNDER 10 KTS, BUT VARY BETWEEN
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH MOST TERMINALS HOLDING ONTO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SOME LIGHT SNOW AT SLK, BUT STILL VFR
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES
WILL DEVELOP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY, EXCEPTIONS BEING PBG
AND RUT WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR. PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
REGION BEYOND THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
RA, DEFINITE FZRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SN,
DEFINITE RA, CHANCE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT. CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>021.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ026-027-030-031-034.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
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