000
FXUS61 KBUF 050713
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AND PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...WHILE
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE
WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN BOTH DIMINISH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH NOT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS
SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A
FEW LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH/VIGOROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
CLIPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED
IN ON TRACKING THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ALONG A TRACK ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE PUSHING ITS TRAILING SHARP COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY THIS
EVENING.
IN THE PROCESS...AN ACCOMPANYING 45-55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER WILL HELP TO KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED ALOFT THROUGH
THIS MORNING...SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MODEL WIND PROFILES/
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEME CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WE'LL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SOME ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE WILL START FIRST IN THE TYPICAL AREAS NE/ENE OF LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT...BEFORE SPREADING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER SHARPLY TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF AND IMMEDIATE
POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...AND SHOULD LAST ROUGHLY 3-6
HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION BEFORE DROPPING OFF FROM WEST-EAST
TONIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOW LEVEL JET.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS REMAINS A LITTLE BIT LOWER EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW TRACK...THESE
STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EVEN THERE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS ALONG
AND A BIT INLAND FROM THE OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTY LAKESHORES.
THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH A
NONZERO CHANCE OF COUPLE ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG/DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY (MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG). REGARDLESS OF ANY
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT...THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE FORCING AND SHEAR MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR ANY ASSOCIATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION TO MIX SOME OF
THE HIGHER-MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...THEREBY
RESULTING IN AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC IN THEIR LATEST
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC PCPN TO MIX
WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME AND WNW/NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL ALSO
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES...HOWEVER THESE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING/DRYING BRINGING AN END TO THESE DURING THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BRING US FAIR...DRY...AND
COOLER WEATHER AS IT BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FADE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ADVANCE
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY
FRIDAY EVENING.
A LLJ OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND OVERHEAD FRIDAY LENDING TO
ANOTHER WINDY DAY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS INTO THE 25
TO 40 MPH RANGE. THOUGH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG WINDS, OUR NEAR ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR MIXING
THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWNWARD, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INITIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID-DAY...AND THE
SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT STARTING UNTIL THE CORE OF THE LLJ HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AT 850 HPA REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLAIN RAIN AS IT ENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA CONTINUE TO DROP SATURDAY COULD SEE WEAK
LAKE RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EMERGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE COLD, CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN
ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY TO BECOME DISLODGED SOUTHWARD, WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CARVING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION.
THE MAIN, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NEAR OUR REGION SUNDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, TO
BECOME ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP DOWN TO -11 TO -13C MONDAY, GIVING
THE REGION AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S (A SOLID 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL), WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S AND AS THE CORE OF THE COLD LOW ALOFT PASSES OVERHEAD SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND REGION-WIDE IN ADDITION TO EMBEDDED BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AS
WELL AS WIND DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z/ECMWF SUGGESTION MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW, WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN MORE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH SOME WARMING MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MIX IN
NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...WHILE PUSHING ITS TRAILING SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE/THICKEN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING
THROUGH THE VFR RANGE THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY (TO 25-
35KTS) WEST OF A ROUGH KROC-KDSV LINE.
AS WE PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FURTHER LOWERING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND MVFR/SPOTTY IFR ELSEWHERE...WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 40-
45 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BEFORE SHARPLY VEERING TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN ITS
WAKE.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH THE LATTER
MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO GIVING WAY TO SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. AS THIS TRANSITION TAKES PLACE...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TO MVFR/VFR.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/MVFR
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MORNING...OTHERWISE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREAWIDE.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING, AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING...
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW...CHANGING TO SNOW AND
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EASTWARD
TODAY...WITH THE LOW PASSING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHARPLY VEER TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY AND PEAK IN
INTENSITY IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY/
WESTERLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS...AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE ON BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO TODAY/THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW. ADDITIONALLY...A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW
BRIEF GUSTS TO ~50 KNOTS STILL EXISTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...
PARTICULARLY IF ANY MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE NECESSARY LEADING INTO THE PERIOD OF
EXPECTED GALES...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NIAGARA RIVER AND UPPERMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA
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