812
FXUS61 KBUF 051836
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
136 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AND PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...WHILE
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE
WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN BOTH DIMINISH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH NOT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS
SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A
FEW LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH/VIGOROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
CLIPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED
IN ON TRACKING THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ALONG A TRACK ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE PUSHING ITS TRAILING SHARP COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY THIS
EVENING.
IN THE PROCESS...AN ACCOMPANYING 45-55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER WILL HELP TO KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED ALOFT THROUGH
THIS MORNING...SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MODEL WIND PROFILES/
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEME CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WE'LL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SOME ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE WILL START FIRST IN THE TYPICAL AREAS NE/ENE OF LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT...BEFORE SPREADING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER SHARPLY TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF AND IMMEDIATE
POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...AND SHOULD LAST ROUGHLY 3-6
HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION BEFORE DROPPING OFF FROM WEST-EAST
TONIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOW LEVEL JET.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS REMAINS A LITTLE BIT LOWER EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW TRACK...THESE
STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EVEN THERE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS ALONG
AND A BIT INLAND FROM THE OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTY LAKESHORES.
THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH A
NONZERO CHANCE OF COUPLE ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG/DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY (MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG). REGARDLESS OF ANY
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT...THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE FORCING AND SHEAR MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR ANY ASSOCIATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION TO MIX SOME OF
THE HIGHER-MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...THEREBY
RESULTING IN AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC IN THEIR LATEST
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...LINGERING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC PCPN TO MIX
WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME AND WNW/NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL ALSO
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES...HOWEVER THESE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING/DRYING BRINGING AN END TO THESE DURING THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BRING US FAIR...DRY...AND
COOLER WEATHER AS IT BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
ANCHORED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL ALLOW A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
PIVOT AROUND THE LOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION,
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BEFORE PASSING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC,
DRAGGING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL, A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50 TO
60 KNOTS WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY, SUPPORTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 45 MPH. WHILE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS, THE NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS
NOT IDEAL TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT MIXING TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERHEAD, AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT
STARTING UNTIL THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED EAST. WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO PASS
FROM WEST TO EAST, TAPERING OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (AT 850 MB) WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 0C, SUPPORTING
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN AS ALL RAIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL COOL SLIGHTLY,
SPARKING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EMERGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE COLD, CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN
ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY BECOMES DISLODGED SOUTHWARD, WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CARVING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION.
THE MAIN, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NEAR OUR REGION SUNDAY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO BECOME ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL FALL BETWEEN -11 TO -13C MONDAY,
SUPPLYING THE REGION AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S (A SOLID 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL), WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S AND AS THE CORE OF THE COLD LOW ALOFT PASSES
OVERHEAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND REGION-WIDE IN ADDITION TO
EMBEDDED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AS
WELL AS WIND DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z/ECMWF SUGGESTION MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW, WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN SUGGESTS A MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH SOME WARMING MAY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MIX IN NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...WHILE PUSHING ITS TRAILING SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE VFR
RANGE THIS MORNING...WITH INITIAL MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY (TO 25-
35KTS) WEST OF A ROUGH KROC-KDSV LINE.
AS WE PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FURTHER LOWERING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND MVFR/SPOTTY IFR ELSEWHERE...WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 40-
45 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BEFORE SHARPLY VEERING TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN ITS
WAKE.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH THE LATTER
MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO GIVING WAY TO SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. AS THIS TRANSITION TAKES PLACE...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TO MVFR/VFR.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/MVFR
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MORNING...OTHERWISE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREAWIDE.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING, AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING...
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW...CHANGING TO SNOW AND
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EASTWARD
TODAY...WITH THE LOW PASSING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHARPLY VEER TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY AND PEAK IN
INTENSITY IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY/
WESTERLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS...AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE ON BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO TODAY/THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW. ADDITIONALLY...A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW
BRIEF GUSTS TO ~50 KNOTS STILL EXISTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...
PARTICULARLY IF ANY MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN PLACE LEADING INTO THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED
GALES ACROSS LAKE ERIE/WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...AND HAVE ALSO BEEN
HOISTED FOR THE NIAGARA RIVER AND UPPERMOST PORTIONS OF THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
SLZ022.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA
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