000
FXUS61 KBUF 051947
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
247 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD AND
PASSES ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
INTO NORTHERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHILE
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS AND
SHOWERS WILL THEN BOTH DIMINISH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, THOUGH NOT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WHERE A SLUSHY
COATING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS TUG HILL AND THE WESTERN DACKS. A FEW
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM USHERS IN THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS THE CENTER OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTHERN NY THROUGH MID
EVENING, WHILE ITS TRAILING SHARP COLD FRONT RACES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY THIS EVENING.
BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STOUT 45-55 KNOT LLJ JUST OFF THE
DECK BETWEEN 1,000 AND 2,000 FEET. WITH AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SO CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE, JUST NEEDED A BIT OF DIURNAL MIXING TO TRANSFER A GOOD
CHUNK OF THIS ENERGY TO THE SURFACE WITH WINDS SOLIDLY GUSTING 40-50
MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE OVER TO ROCHESTER CURRENTLY. THESE
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY, WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS REMAINING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE
TO THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 4
PM AND 8 PM THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS VEERING SHARPLY TO WESTERLY AND
THEN NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE
SURFACE, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ITSELF AND IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME,
AND SHOULD LAST ROUGHLY SEVERAL HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION BEFORE
DROPPING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND LLJ.
WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 1 AM
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS REMAINS A BIT LOWER EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO, ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW NOW SET TO TRACK RIGHT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A
NONZERO CHANCE OF A COUPLE ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG/DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS OF ANY THUNDER DEVELOPMENT, THE
DEGREE OF AVAILABLE FORCING AND SHEAR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR ANY
ASSOCIATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION TO MIX SOME OF THE HIGHER-MOMENTUM
AIR ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THEREBY RESULTING IN AT LEAST A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AS
REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC IN THEIR LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, LINGERING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS BEFORE IT
WINDS DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THURSDAY, WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME AND WNW/NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES,
HOWEVER THESE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING/DRYING BRINGING AN END TO THESE DURING THURSDAY MORNING.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW WET FLAKES MIXING IN ACROSS THE HILLTOPS OF
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE, ASIDE FROM THE FEW LINGERING
LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES, THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE WILL BRING US FAIR, DRY, AND COOLER WEATHER AS IT BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
ANCHORED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL ALLOW A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
PIVOT AROUND THE LOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION,
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BEFORE PASSING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC,
DRAGGING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL, A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50 TO
60 KNOTS WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY, SUPPORTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 45 MPH. WHILE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS, THE NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS
NOT IDEAL TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT MIXING TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERHEAD, AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT
STARTING UNTIL THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED EAST. WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO PASS
FROM WEST TO EAST, TAPERING OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (AT 850 MB) WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 0C, SUPPORTING
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN AS ALL RAIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL COOL SLIGHTLY,
SPARKING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EMERGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE COLD, CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN
ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY BECOMES DISLODGED SOUTHWARD, WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CARVING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION.
THE MAIN, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NEAR OUR REGION SUNDAY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO BECOME ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL FALL BETWEEN -11 TO -13C MONDAY,
SUPPLYING THE REGION AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S (A SOLID 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL), WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S AND AS THE CORE OF THE COLD LOW ALOFT PASSES
OVERHEAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND REGION-WIDE IN ADDITION TO
EMBEDDED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AS
WELL AS WIND DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z/ECMWF SUGGESTION MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW, WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN SUGGESTS A MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH SOME WARMING MAY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MIX IN NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN NY THIS EVENING, WHILE
PUSHING ITS TRAILING SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-45
KNOT NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE (KBUF/KIAG) OVER TO KROC THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY (KART), WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE
HIGHER END GUSTS IS LOWER OWED TO THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS THIS
REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER WESTERLY THEN
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY AS EXPECTED. FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE
DETERIORATED TO MVFR ACROSS THE WESTERN NY TERMINALS, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO MVFR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONLY AREA THAT LOOKS TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY IFR IS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO (KART) CLOSER THE LOW CENTER.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WINDS AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE LATTER MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND ALSO GIVING WAY TO SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. AS THIS TRANSITION TAKES
PLACE, FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY START TO IMPROVE SOME LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY THURSDAY, AND WIDESPREAD
VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING, AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING,
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY, RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW, CHANGING TO SNOW AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
WITH LOCALIZED IFR.
MARINE
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING, WHILE PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHARPLY VEER TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY AND PEAK IN INTENSITY
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY/
WESTERLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS, AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE ON BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOR WHICH GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW. ADDITIONALLY, A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW
BRIEF GUSTS TO ~50 KNOTS STILL EXISTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
PARTICULARLY IF ANY MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NIAGARA RIVER AND UPPERMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
SLZ022.
SYNOPSIS...JM/JJR
NEAR TERM...JM/JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/THOMAS
AVIATION...JM/JJR
MARINE...JM/JJR
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