146
FXUS61 KBUF 052318
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
618 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, PRODUCING A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN
BOTH DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH NOT
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WHERE A SLUSHY COATING IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS TUG HILL AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. A FEW
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THURSDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM USHERS IN THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING, AS THE CENTER OF THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY THROUGH MID EVENING, WHILE ITS
TRAILING SHARP COLD FRONT RACES EAST OF THE AREA.
BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STOUT 45-55 KNOT LLJ JUST OFF THE
DECK BETWEEN 1,000 AND 2,000 FEET, WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS VEER TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TIED TO
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF AND IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME, AND SHOULD LAST ROUGHLY SEVERAL HOURS AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION BEFORE DROPPING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND LLJ. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL
BE IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE IN MOST AREAS, AND POSSIBLY UP TO 55 MPH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 1 AM
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS REMAINS A BIT LOWER EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO, ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW NOW SET TO TRACK RIGHT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING.
THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING, BOTH ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND ALSO WITHIN A COMMA HEAD OF DEEPER WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE VERY LOW END RISK OF
ISOLATED THUNDER OR NON-THUNDER PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, LINGERING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS BEFORE IT
WINDS DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THURSDAY, WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME AND WNW/NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET SNOW SHOWERS SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE
HURON WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, AND A GEORGIAN
BAY BAND WILL STRETCH FROM ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN BUF/ROC DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES. IF THIS BAND SETS UP OVER THE BRISTOL
HILLS, THERE MAY BE A COATING OF SNOW ON THE HIGH HILLTOPS. ALL OF
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, WITH DRY AIR AND RIDGING BRINGING AN END
TO THE LAKE RESPONSE BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
ANCHORED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL ALLOW A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
PIVOT AROUND THE LOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION,
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BEFORE PASSING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC,
DRAGGING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL, A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50 TO
60 KNOTS WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY, SUPPORTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 45 MPH. WHILE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS, THE NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS
NOT IDEAL TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT MIXING TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERHEAD, AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT
STARTING UNTIL THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED EAST. WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO PASS
FROM WEST TO EAST, TAPERING OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (AT 850 MB) WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 0C, SUPPORTING
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN AS ALL RAIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL COOL SLIGHTLY,
SPARKING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EMERGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE COLD, CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN
ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY BECOMES DISLODGED SOUTHWARD, WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CARVING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION.
THE MAIN, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NEAR OUR REGION SUNDAY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO BECOME ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL FALL BETWEEN -11 TO -13C MONDAY,
SUPPLYING THE REGION AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S (A SOLID 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL), WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S AND AS THE CORE OF THE COLD LOW ALOFT PASSES
OVERHEAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND REGION-WIDE IN ADDITION TO
EMBEDDED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AS
WELL AS WIND DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z/ECMWF SUGGESTION MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW, WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN SUGGESTS A MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH SOME WARMING MAY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MIX IN NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RACE EAST FROM NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WNW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40
KNOT RANGE AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID EVENING, WITH A FEW MORE WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS
EVENING TRANSITIONING TO MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT, AND
SOME WET SNOW MAY ALSO MIX IN ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING IN ANY LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT BANDS. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED, ENDING BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
AND DRY AIR BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
VSBY WILL BE MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN ANY OF THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS
AND WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR THIS EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR
LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN LAKE EFFECT BANDS. ALL AREAS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING, AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING,
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY, RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW, CHANGING TO SNOW AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
WITH LOCALIZED IFR.
MARINE
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE ON BOTH
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOR WHICH GALE WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NIAGARA RIVER AND UPPERMOST PORTIONS OF THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BRIEFLY.
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE CHANCE OF
WATERSPOUTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE.
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF 20-30 KNOT WINDS ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
SLZ022.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JM/JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM/JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JM/JJR
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