222
FXUS61 KBUF 060701
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
201 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
THROUGH SUNRISE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALSO ENDING.
OTHERWISE LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT WINDS/GUSTS HAVE BEEN SAFELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS SINCE LATE YESTERDAY EVENING...AND WITH THIS IN MIND
THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THEIR 06Z EXPIRATION
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE...LEFTOVER SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH
THIS EXPECTED TO END PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MUCH MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY AIDED BY TRANSIENT UPSTREAM
CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY AT TIMES) WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THESE ALSO THEN GENERALLY FADING
OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -6C TO -7C RANGE...SOME SNOW MAY
MIX IN WITHIN THIS LINGERING ACTIVITY AS WE PUSH TOWARD SUNRISE...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
PCPN WE CAN OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TODAY...WITH THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS SUPPORTING SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S
IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE AN ADDITIONAL STRAY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW STEADILY BACKS ACROSS OUR REGION AND BRIEFLY ALLOWS
FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...THE NIGHT SHOULD OTHERWISE
BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL GIVEN PLENTY OF LINGERING DRY AIR BELOW 10
KFT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF EXTREME FAR WNY...WITH TEMPS RISING LATE AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL DRAG A SFC LOW AVERAGING ~992MB FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
CENTRAL QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LEADING TO YET ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH RAIN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF ACTUAL SFC LOW PRESSURE, THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF 55-60KTS AT 850MB AND 45-
50KTS AT 925MB. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
CAUSING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW THESE LEVELS, WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE HEADLINE-WORTHY GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SFC.
THIS SAID, GIVEN THE SSE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LACK OF RAIN UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE IN A FEW HOUR LONG
WINDOW OF DOWNSLOPE MIXING OF GUSTS UP TO 40MPH IN THE TYPICAL
FAVORED AREAS FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TO THE TUG HILL ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FOCUSED EAST
OF THE LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH POST-FRONTAL VEERING
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING BACK BELOW 0C. WHILE THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE NEXT
SFC LOW AND PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAKING A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND TRACKING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN,
THOUGH THIS TRACK STRONGLY SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE A RELATIVE NON-
ISSUE. TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE ONSET FOR A FEW WET FLAKES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO ALL RAIN.
AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, THE CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME DISLODGED
AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD, DRAGGING ITS PLUME OF COLD CANADIAN AIR WITH
IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER POTENT COLD-ADVECTIVE PATTERN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, WHICH DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK COULD ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKES BY
THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A
STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A QUICK BUT
POTENT PLUNGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 850MB FALLING
TO AROUND -10C OR POSSIBLY COLDER BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANY RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.
FROM THIS POINT, THE MAIN FOCUS THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. MANY OF THE DETAILS WILL HINGE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND HOW EXACTLY IT INTERACTS WITH/TRANSLATES ENERGY
TO A DEVELOPING SECONDARY SFC LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY,
ALL OF WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPACTS ON THE OVERALL STEERING FLOW DRIVING THE LAKE EFFECT AND
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIE. AT THIS
JUNCTURE, LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES STRONGLY SUGGEST A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS EVEN
FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM ALOFT AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES FAVORED, THOUGH ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED AND THUS GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH SUNRISE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
COMES TO AN END EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FURTHER WEST DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SE OF BOTH LAKES...WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN WITH THESE TOWARD MORNING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE
MVFR TO VFR...WITH SOME IFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH TODAY...ANY LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SE OF
THE LAKES WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AS SURFACE-BASED
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS LARGELY IMPROVING TO
VFR. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...TURNING WINDY AGAIN, WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR/IFR
EXPECTED AS SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING,
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW, CHANGING TO SNOW AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH
LOCALIZED IFR, OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR.
MARINE
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AND
REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WHILE NOT
PARTICULARLY LIKELY...THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON
LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF 20-30 KNOT WINDS TO BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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