912
FXUS61 KBUF 061118
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
618 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING...WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS (MIXED WITH WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN) SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL FADE OUT BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE US WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
TODAY...THOUGH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE AN ADDITIONAL STRAY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW STEADILY BACKS ACROSS OUR REGION AND BRIEFLY ALLOWS
FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...THE NIGHT SHOULD OTHERWISE
BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL GIVEN PLENTY OF LINGERING DRY AIR BELOW 10
KFT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF EXTREME FAR WNY...WITH TEMPS RISING LATE AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL DRAG A SFC LOW AVERAGING ~992MB FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
CENTRAL QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LEADING TO YET ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH RAIN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF ACTUAL SFC LOW PRESSURE, THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF 55-60KTS AT 850MB AND 45-
50KTS AT 925MB. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
CAUSING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW THESE LEVELS, WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE HEADLINE-WORTHY GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SFC.
THIS SAID, GIVEN THE SSE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LACK OF RAIN UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE IN A FEW HOUR LONG
WINDOW OF DOWNSLOPE MIXING OF GUSTS UP TO 40MPH IN THE TYPICAL
FAVORED AREAS FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TO THE TUG HILL ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FOCUSED EAST
OF THE LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH POST-FRONTAL VEERING
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING BACK BELOW 0C. WHILE THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE NEXT
SFC LOW AND PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAKING A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND TRACKING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN,
THOUGH THIS TRACK STRONGLY SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE A RELATIVE NON-
ISSUE. TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE ONSET FOR A FEW WET FLAKES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO ALL RAIN.
AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, THE CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME DISLODGED
AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD, DRAGGING ITS PLUME OF COLD CANADIAN AIR WITH
IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER POTENT COLD-ADVECTIVE PATTERN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, WHICH DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK COULD ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKES BY
THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A
STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A QUICK BUT
POTENT PLUNGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 850MB FALLING
TO AROUND -10C OR POSSIBLY COLDER BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANY RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.
FROM THIS POINT, THE MAIN FOCUS THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. MANY OF THE DETAILS WILL HINGE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND HOW EXACTLY IT INTERACTS WITH/TRANSLATES ENERGY
TO A DEVELOPING SECONDARY SFC LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY,
ALL OF WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPACTS ON THE OVERALL STEERING FLOW DRIVING THE LAKE EFFECT AND
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIE. AT THIS
JUNCTURE, LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES STRONGLY SUGGEST A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS EVEN
FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM ALOFT AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES FAVORED, THOUGH ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED AND THUS GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS WE MOVE THROUGH TODAY...ANY LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AS
SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE CURRENT MIX OF MAINLY
LOW VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND OFF
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MORNING LLWS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WNY...OTHERWISE TURNING
WINDY AGAIN, WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING,
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW, CHANGING TO SNOW AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH
LOCALIZED IFR, OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND FALL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY LIKELY...THERE IS ALSO A LOW
CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF 20-30 KNOT WINDS TO BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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