666
FXUS61 KBUF 062248
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
548 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WIND MOVES INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT, OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SOME BRIEF, PARTIAL CLEARING LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN/WET SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS OSWEGO
COUNTY, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM ADVECTION AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BRING A QUICK END TO ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO
DEVELOP.
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY
IN THE PROCESS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
WIND ARRIVES ACROSS WESTERN NY AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THEN ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY
CONDITIONS DESPITE THE STRONG WAA PATTERN. HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE, WHERE THOUGH NOT A PERPENDICULAR
FLOW TO THE RIDGE, A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO
MECHANICALLY MIX DOWN AT LEAST SOME OF A STOUT 50-60 KNOT LLJ JUST
OFF THE DECK. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE, WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR HIGHER
END WIND GUSTS, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA. IT WILL
ALSO BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAINLY 30-35 MPH PEAK GUSTS
EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL COME DOWN FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FIRST HALF OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO IN THE POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
REGIME. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE DRY WEATHER WON'T LAST LONG AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW AND PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS INDIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN HEAD
NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A FEW WET FLAKES
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, THE
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL GRADUALLY BE DISLODGED
AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN A PLUME OF COLD CANADIAN AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, COLD WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION INTO LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TO SET THE SCENE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP YET
PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CONUS WITH A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
TROUGH OVERHEAD, EXPECT A BURST OF COLD AIR TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, CAUSING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO AROUND -10C
MONDAY. AS A RESULT THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO SET UP FOR MONDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK. SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN QUESTION AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE ITS DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY AND HOW IT WILL INTERACT/TRANSLATES ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. OVERALL THIS
WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE STEERING FLOW DRIVING THE LAKE EFFECT AND
WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIE.
UNCERTAINTY GROWS EVEN FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES
FAVORED, THOUGH ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED AND THUS GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN AS OPPOSED TO SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING MOST OF THE TIME. A BAND OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/WET SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR KFZY, BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY
END OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN NY AROUND MIDDAY, THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY MAY DROP TO MVFR IN THE MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWERS, AND CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IFR HIGHER TERRAIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN
DEVELOPS AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
A STRONG 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL THEN RESULT IN 25-35 KNOT SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
MIX. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE BELT OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT EXITS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING,
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW, CHANGING TO SNOW AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
WITH LOCALIZED IFR, OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS IT
SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AS OUTLINED BELOW.
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE, WHILE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF 20-30 KNOT SOUTHERLY VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND, A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE AS
OUTLINED BELOW, WITH ANOTHER OF ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
LIKELY NEEDED FOR LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL...JUST WITH A LATER START.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JM/JJR
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