834
FXUS61 KBUF 080710
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES. MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA...WITH MAINLY RAIN
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
SNOWS SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF THIS WRITING...THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOW LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO FINISH ITS PASSAGE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG DRY SLOTTING
ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH JUST A FEW MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH LOWS
SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
DURING THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING DAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...WHILE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED WHILE STALLING OUT TO OUR SOUTH. A
FEW MORE SPOTTY LIGHT UPSLOPE AND LAKE-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING...
WITH A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS THEN BECOMING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE BEGIN TO ADVECT EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED OUT-BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL...
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 AND 50.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WORKING BACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE...THIS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF WARMER
AIR OVERSPREADING OUR REGION ABOVE AN UNDERLYING LAYER OF COLDER
EASTERLY TO TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES CURRENTLY
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THIS SHOULD BE RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES GIVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THERE. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
MUCH COLDER AND SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
WARMING ALOFT POTENTIALLY ALLOWS FOR SOME SLEET AND/OR RAIN TO BEGIN
MIXING IN LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTY. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...THESE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO, WILL ALLOW A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ROTATE AROUND IT, WITH THE SECOND OF
THE SHORTWAVES BEING MORE POTENT AND CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO
ELONGATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PUSH THE TROUGH
AXIS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH/MID-
LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS INDIANA AND OHIO THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AND FURTHER NORTH
INTO EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT,
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS INDIANA, BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE DETAILS, AS THE LOW RIDES FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK STATE, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, PLACING THE DEFORMATION
BAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. IT IS AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST WHERE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS ELEVATED AS THE TRACK OF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE MODEL DISCREPANCIES. THIS NOT ONLY
IMPACTS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, BUT ALSO THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A WESTERN MORE TRACK WILL FAVOR A WARMER
SOLUTION SUPPORTING MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER, AN EASTERN MORE TRACK
(SUCH AS HAVING THE LOW PASS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK, WILL FAVOR
A COLD AIR MASS TO ARRIVE EARLIER, HELPING TO TRANSITION RAIN
OVER TO SNOW. IF THIS DOES COME INTO FRUITION, AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACCUMULATING ON
GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. AS OF CURRENT, THIS FORECAST
ITERATION FAVORS A WARMER SOLUTION, SUPPORTING MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, SUPPORTING A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AHEAD OF SUNSET AND ALL SNOW THERE
AFTER. AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LAKE ENHANCED DUE TO THE QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR
(AROUND -6C AT 850MB) TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AT
850MB WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE, REACHING A MINIMA OF -10C AT 850MB BY
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL THEN REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL,
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING. INITIALLY NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY WILL BACK TO
WESTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEREFORE EXPECT TEA KETTLE LIKE SNOW BANDS (MULTIPLE BANDS OF SNOW)
SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY, MAINLY IMPACTING
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
ROCHESTER TOWARDS I-81. BANDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHERLY MONDAY
EVENING TO BE EAST OF BOTH LAKES DUE TO THE WIND SHIFT. MAIN AREAS
OF CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY LIES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WARNING AMOUNTS, MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD OF MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO, CANADA AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM TO TRAVERSE THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS BEING SAID, ANOTHER ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE GRACING WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
ONGOING, LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION, BEFORE
BEING REINVIGORATED WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AND THEN LASTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
AT 850MB WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO -2C WEDNESDAY, BEFORE TUMBLING
BACK DOWN TOWARDS -5/-6C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHAT THIS BOILS DOWN
TO, IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ANOTHER TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH SUNRISE EXPECT A GENERAL MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FEW MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES...WITH DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE PREVAILING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT.
AS WE PUSH THROUGH TODAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...TONIGHT'S COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED WHILE STALLING OUT
TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MORE SPOTTY LIGHT UPSLOPE AND LAKE-DRIVEN
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS THEN BECOMING
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY ALONG THE
STALLED OUT-BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL BE DRY...WITH A
CONTINUED MIX OF MVFR TO LOWER-END VFR CEILINGS MOSTLY PREVAILING.
TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD
TO LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WORKING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS CORRESPONDINGLY LOWERING TO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THIS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
OVERSPREADING OUR REGION ABOVE AN UNDERLYING LAYER OF COLDER EAST TO
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES CURRENTLY SUGGEST THAT THE
BULK OF THIS SHOULD BE RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH A LITTLE
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KIAG OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COLDER AND SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET...BEFORE WARMING ALOFT POTENTIALLY ALLOWS
FOR SOME SLEET AND/OR RAIN TO BEGIN MIXING IN LATE IN THE NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF KART.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WITH A WINTRY MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
CHANGING TO RAIN...AND MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIFR TO MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST/EAST OF THE
LAKES WITH LOCALIZED IFR, OTHERWISE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
VFR/MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
WESTERLIES TO LINGERING SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH TODAY...
RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND EVENTUALLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND
LOWER WAVES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW TO COVER LINGERING BRISK WINDS AND WAVE
ACTION UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY/
EASTERLY AND FRESHEN AGAIN...WITH THESE BECOMING RATHER BRISK BY
SUNDAY MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO...AND DURING SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON BOTH LAKES...WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVE ACTION
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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