292
FXUS61 KBUF 081121
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
621 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES. MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA...WITH MAINLY RAIN
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
SNOWS SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY...WHILE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...
TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED
WHILE STALLING OUT TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MORE SPOTTY LIGHT UPSLOPE AND
LAKE-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN
BECOMING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY AS
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BEGIN TO ADVECT EASTWARD ALONG THE
STALLED OUT-BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 AND 50.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WORKING BACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE...THIS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF WARMER
AIR OVERSPREADING OUR REGION ABOVE AN UNDERLYING LAYER OF COLDER
EASTERLY TO TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES CURRENTLY
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THIS SHOULD BE RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES GIVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THERE. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
MUCH COLDER AND SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
WARMING ALOFT POTENTIALLY ALLOWS FOR SOME SLEET AND/OR RAIN TO BEGIN
MIXING IN LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTY. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...THESE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A POTENTIALLY MESSY WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE UPON THE
REGION SUNDAY AS A DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCES A SFC LOW
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS CENTRAL NY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY UNDERGO A SUBTLE BUT COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH AN AREA OF
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS
THE FORMER TRANSFERS AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF ENERGY TO THE LATTER.
THIS DYNAMIC SETUP INTRODUCES AN UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST DESPITE THE RELATIVE SHORT FORECAST
RANGE, AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED
TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
LIKELY SETTING UP RIGHT OVER THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE THE COASTAL ENERGY TRANSFER AND THUS THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF
THE LOW, AND ANY SMALL DEVIATION WILL MOVE WHERE THIS GRADIENT SETS
UP, POTENTIALLY SPELLING A VERY DIFFERENT FORECAST OUTCOME FOR SOME
AREAS.
AS OF THIS UPDATE, HAVE SOMEWHAT LEANED BACK TOWARDS THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS (MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TRACK), FOLLOWING THE MORE
CONSISTENT TREND FROM THE ECMWF FROM THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
STRATIFORM PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT TEMPORARILY TAKING UP
RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FINGER LAKES. P-TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN
IN *MOST* LOCATIONS, WITH TWO POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST MAY BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET MAY
BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING AS A WARM NOSE REMAINS ALOFT, BEFORE A
SWITCHOVER TO ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN OCCURS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
SECOND, LOWER CONFIDENCE AREA OF CONCERN IS BACK ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. DESPITE THEIR DIFFERENCES, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF WITHIN THE COLD
CONVEYER BELT ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, AND MANY
SHOW THIS SETTING UP SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH VERY MARGINAL TEMPS AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT, THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WET-BULB COOLING COULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO CAUSE AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THIS AREA. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR, ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE
GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES, THOUGH IF PRECIP INTENSITY IS SUFFICIENT
IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME AREA ROADS GET A
SLUSHY COATING OF WET SNOW.
REGARDLESS OF HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT, A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL WRAP IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE ANY PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW, THOUGH
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A WINTRY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET
OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE
COLDER AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT BEFORE THE WHOLE COLUMN
COOLS. OTHERWISE, GENERAL WRAP-AROUND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO PURE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
IN MOST AREAS FOR A TIME AS DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES.
ANOTHER SLUG OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL THEN ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD, CAUSING THE LAKE
RESPONSE TO BECOME REINVIGORATED. WHILE THE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO A
DEGREE, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ERIE AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND TUG HILL REGIONS RESPECTIVELY. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, THOUGH WARNING-
LEVEL AMOUNTS STILL SEEM UNLIKELY. MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
COULD SUPPORT A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD OF MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TO TRAVERSE
THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION CAUSING
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE OVERALL LAKE RESPONSE DIMINISHING FOR
A TIME, BEFORE BEING REINVIGORATED WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AND THEN LASTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO -2C WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE TUMBLING BACK DOWN TOWARDS -5/-6C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ANOTHER TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED WHILE STALLING OUT TO OUR
SOUTH. A FEW MORE SPOTTY LIGHT UPSLOPE AND LAKE-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN BECOMING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY ALONG THE STALLED
OUT-BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL BE DRY...WITH A CONTINUED MIX
OF MVFR TO LOWER-END VFR CEILINGS PREVAILING.
TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD
TO LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WORKING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS CORRESPONDINGLY LOWERING TO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THIS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
OVERSPREADING OUR REGION ABOVE AN UNDERLYING LAYER OF COLDER EAST TO
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES CURRENTLY SUGGEST THAT THE
BULK OF THIS SHOULD BE RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH A LITTLE
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KIAG OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COLDER AND SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET...BEFORE WARMING ALOFT POTENTIALLY ALLOWS
FOR SOME SLEET AND/OR RAIN TO BEGIN MIXING IN LATE IN THE NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF KART.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WITH A WINTRY MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
CHANGING TO RAIN...AND MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIFR TO MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST/EAST OF THE
LAKES WITH LOCALIZED IFR, OTHERWISE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
VFR/MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND EVENTUALLY A BRIEF WINDOW
OF LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LOWER WAVES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ONTARIO AS OUTLINED
BELOW TO COVER LINGERING BRISK WINDS AND WAVE ACTION UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY/
EASTERLY AND FRESHEN AGAIN...WITH THESE BECOMING RATHER BRISK BY
SUNDAY MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO...AND DURING SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON BOTH LAKES...WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVE ACTION
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...EAJ/PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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