280
FXUS65 KBYZ 132006
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
206 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY AND WARMER (70S TO LOW 80S) SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTER CONDITIONS RETURN WITH ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
MCV/ 700MB LOW IS WEAKENING RIGHT NOW, AS SEEN BY RADAR
REFLECTIVITY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
(20-60%) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NW
ZONES AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER LOW ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
MATOS
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE PNW INTO SOUTHWEST MT EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 30 TO 60% CHANCE OF
AT LEAST 0.25" OF RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW WITH UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS, BUT A
FEW WEAK AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN LAST WEEKS, WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND -5C. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS, THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IS 20-50% MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN MIDWEEK, WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA FROM A
LOW IN CANADA. OTHER MODELS SHOW GENERAL TROUGHING DIGGING ALONG
THE ROCKIES. ENSEMBLES DO SHOW BETTER CONFIDENCE IN RIDGING LATER
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S MONDAY, COOLING
TO THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. PM/TS
AVIATION
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT KMLS, THANKS TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS,
RECENT RAINFALL, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
MONTANA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/081 056/077 054/071 051/078 051/080 052/078 051/074
10/U 13/T 45/T 21/U 00/U 01/B 22/W
LVM 043/079 045/069 043/071 042/078 044/080 045/078 043/072
11/U 25/T 44/T 10/U 00/U 12/W 33/T
HDN 047/081 051/079 051/071 048/078 047/080 048/080 049/075
10/U 02/T 55/T 31/U 10/U 01/B 22/W
MLS 053/080 055/081 054/073 051/076 049/077 051/079 051/074
10/B 11/B 34/T 31/U 10/U 11/U 22/W
4BQ 053/075 054/079 054/068 051/073 049/074 051/078 051/073
10/E 11/U 44/T 32/W 10/U 00/U 22/W
BHK 051/073 052/080 051/073 048/074 046/074 046/075 047/072
12/W 21/B 33/T 31/U 11/U 10/U 22/W
SHR 044/079 047/076 046/068 043/074 044/078 046/080 047/074
10/U 03/T 56/T 32/W 10/U 01/U 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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