771
FXUS65 KBYZ 170748
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
148 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY.
- BECOMING DRIER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW PRODUCED A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
FROM NEAR EMIGRANT IN THE PARADISE VALLEY NORTHEAST TO AROUND
RYEGATE. UNDER THIS BAND RADAR ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED REPORTS
SHOW 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL, WITH A PEAK IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE HEADWATERS OF THE BOULDER RIVER OF 3.6 INCHES.
THE CONSOLIDATION AND STAGNATION OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS REALLY CUT OFF WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. SOME
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS TO BE SURE, BUT SO FAR NO REPORTS FOR FLOODING
ISSUES HAVE COME INTO OUR OFFICE.
THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT TODAY, DRAGGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EAST ALONG WITH IT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BAKER TO FORT
SMITH LINE. THERE ARE HIGH (70+%) PROBABILITIES FOR HALF AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN CARTER COUNTY, BUT HIGH
PROBABILITIES (60+%) FOR A QUARTER INCH PLUS ARE PROBABLY MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
BEST PRECIPITATION AREAS. AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WITH PRECIPITATION AREAS AS THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WHILE AREAS FURTHER NORTH/WEST WHERE
LESS RAIN AND MORE SUN WILL PREVAIL REACH THE MID 70S.
FOR THE MOST PART PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM EASTWARD, AS MENTIONED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS DUE TO A
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EAST COAST, WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
STATE LINE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SUN AND A BIT OF A
DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE AREAS RIGHT ALONG
THE STATE LINE (BAKER/EKALAKA) MAY HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
RIDGING TO FASTER ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
AND MAINL DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
MEAGER IN THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT. TEMPERATURES HEAD TOWARD
THE 80S ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. ABOVE
NORMAL (NORMAL IS MID 70S THIS TIME OF YEAR) TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
RAINFALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY, FOG
MAY DEVELOP WHERE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. AT THIS TIME, AREAS AROUND
KLVM AND K6S0 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FOG IMPACTS. ANY FOG
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-EASTERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING TODAY. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 051/077 049/079 052/083 055/084 052/080 052/085
2/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 10/U 00/U
LVM 071 041/078 043/080 046/081 047/079 043/078 046/082
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/U 10/U 00/U
HDN 075 046/077 046/079 048/083 049/085 049/080 047/085
3/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 20/U 00/U
MLS 076 051/074 048/076 050/082 052/084 052/078 049/083
2/T 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U
4BQ 068 049/069 046/074 050/080 053/082 052/076 050/081
6/T 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U
BHK 070 048/065 045/073 047/079 049/081 049/077 047/080
4/T 33/W 20/B 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U
SHR 067 042/072 042/077 046/081 047/082 046/077 046/083
7/T 31/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 20/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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