948
FXUS65 KBYZ 171956
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
156 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDER LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS
EVENING.
- BECOMING DRIER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO DRIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) WILL PERSIST THURSDAY FOR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
THURSDAY, THE NBM IS GIVING LOCATIONS IN FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES A 10-20% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES OF
RAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO START TO WARM INTO THE MID TO HIGH 70S
F WHILE 60S F REMAIN NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS START TO CHANGE FRIDAY AS A MORE ZONAL/RIDGING PATTERN
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TWO 500 MB TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
AND MONDAY, THOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHEAST MONTANA. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ENTERING MONTANA IN THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 70S F IN THE EAST TO LOW 80S F IN THE WEST. SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S F.
TORGERSON
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST, INCLUDING NEAR
KSHR, KMLS, AND KBHK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF KMLS INTO THURSDAY. UNDER ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/077 049/077 052/084 055/084 052/079 051/084 054/085
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 21/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 041/078 044/079 045/082 048/078 044/076 046/083 049/081
00/U 00/B 00/U 01/U 20/U 00/U 01/U
HDN 046/077 046/078 048/084 050/085 048/078 046/085 049/087
00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 30/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 050/074 048/074 048/082 052/085 052/076 048/082 051/084
21/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 20/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 048/069 047/072 048/079 053/083 053/074 050/081 053/085
30/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 20/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 047/067 044/071 045/078 048/082 048/075 045/080 047/080
32/W 10/B 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 041/074 043/076 046/081 049/082 046/075 046/083 048/086
10/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 31/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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