040
FXUS62 KCAE 150105
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
805 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- OVERCAST SKIES AND PATCHY FOG LINGERING TONIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA, WINDS ALOFT HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS
LEADING TO DRIER AIR FUNNELING INTO THE AREA ALOFT. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS REMAINING
IN THE AREA WHICH MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH, SCOURING OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS.
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW, HOWEVER, WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE
PUSHED TO THE EAST. COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PREVENT
LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY, TAKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OUT TO SEA
WITH IT. BY SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL BE TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY PATTERN SETTING UP IN
ITS WAKE AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TAKE OVER ACROSS THE AREA AND
PWATS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OR LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, EVEN WITH SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION, MAINLY DUE TO THE SOME
DOWNSLOPING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT NIGHT, GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SET UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH VERY DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS
WOULD BRING THE POSSIBLY OF SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND TO START OFF THE
WEEK.
- MORE UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UPPER RIDGE STAYS STRONG INTO MONDAY, THEN BEGINS TO BE
SUPPRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AGAIN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, THEN AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE
AGAIN ENTER THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE MAY BE
DUE TO TC SARA AND MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THAT
SYSTEM BY MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK
INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE TERMINALS AS THE COLD AIR
DAMMING REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHERLY
WITH WINDS ALOFT TURNING WESTERLY. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT HOWEVER WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
OVER THE AREA IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE DRIER AIR TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TO VFR AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 9 KNOTS OR
LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTION
TUESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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