432
FXUS62 KCAE 171132
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH LIGHT NW WINDS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH
A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID-
WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, THEN COLDER, DRIER, AND
WINDIER CONDITIONS BY THE END OF WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RIVER AND VALLEY FOG WITH SOME DENSE PATCHES EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA, LIGHT WINDS, VERY DRY AIR ALOFT, AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY SUNDAY.
SOME AREAS OF 1/4 MILE ARE LIKELY AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE WARRANTED IF COVERAGE INCREASES. AS OF 6AM, THE FOG IS
PRIMARILY STICKING AROUND BODIES OF WATER NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS,
AND ASSOCIATED VALLEYS. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID- MORNING
EVERYWHERE AND MAKE WAY FOR ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 70. FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF RAIN MIDWEEK
- A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS A BIT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SARA WILL
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS SURGE TO
1.5-1.6 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, NEARLY
200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
POSSIBLE GULF COAST CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION FURTHER NORTH AND ENSEMBLE PLUME MEMBERS SHOW A
LARGE RANGE IN RAINFALL TOTALS FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AN END TO ANY RAINFALL WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS PWATS AND
DEWPOINTS DRASTICALLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WINDY AND TURNING MUCH COLDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- DRY WITH FAIR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DOMINATED BY A DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP
MIXING. ECWMF EFI CONTINUES TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WINDS
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LINGER
INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.
OTHERWISE, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PWATS FALL TO
AROUND 30 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NO
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND SIMILAR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST
CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
30S, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS
WHERE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIX OF RESTRICTIONS WITH RIVER-VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING; LIFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 13-14Z AT AGS.
LIGHT WINDS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NEAR GROUND LEVEL
SHOULD YIELD PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY. SOME MVFR VSBY ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT ALL TAF SITES LASTING THROUGH 13Z;
AGS WILL SEE LIFR- IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM RIVER FOG- STRATUS
THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID- MORNING AT ALL
SITES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THE REST OF SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. FOG IS LIKELY
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD AND A
MENTION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF'S.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE AND A FRONT CROSS THE
REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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