568
FXUS62 KCAE 171738
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1238 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID-WEEK, BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, THEN COLDER, DRIER, AND WINDIER CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY, BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MORNING NEAR LAKES
AND RIVERS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. DRY AIR, MOSTLY CALM
WINDS, AND ONLY THIN CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH WILL CREATE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH WARM AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH ALOFT
MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- WINDY WEATHER POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
BELOW NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. A TIGHT H5 GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH COULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY. THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. H5
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MIX OF RESTRICTIONS WITH RIVER-VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.
MAINLY THIN CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH MONDAY. AIRMASS IS DRY, BUT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AROUND AREA RIVERS AND LAKES REMAINS
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST IMPACT SHOULD BE AT AGS,
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS
RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER. REMAINING SITES COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND THE SAME TIME. BY 13-14Z CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE AND A FRONT CROSS THE
REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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