991
FXUS62 KCAE 180031
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. COLDER, DRIER,
AND WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LAKE AND RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SIMILAR OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT. FOG SUNDAY MORNING WAS OBSERVED ALONG LAKES AND RIVERS
BUT OTHERWISE WAS PATCHY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH WARM AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH ALOFT
MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- WINDY WEATHER POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
BELOW NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. A TIGHT H5 GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH COULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY. THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. H5
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE OTHERWISE VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE FOG AND STRATUS FROM
EARLY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG RIVER AND
LAKES AND EXPAND INTO THE TERMINALS. AGS WILL AGAIN SEE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WITH SUNRISE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BEGIN MIXING OUT WITH ALL SITES RETURNING TO
VFR BY 14Z. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING SCATTERED
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE AND A FRONT CROSS THE
REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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