125
FXUS62 KCAE 190018
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN PUSHING
AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF 30-40 MPH
GUSTS ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER WESTERN GA. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A BIT OF A
CHANGE FROM THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE SLOWLY BEGINS INCREASING OVER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS TO BE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY DISRUPT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE FOG THREAT WILL BE LOWER WITH SEVERAL
HOURS OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG AREA LAKES AND RIVER ALONG WITH TYPICALLY FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE
TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN UPPER LOW AND STRENGTHEN.
A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SEND A PREFRONTAL TYPE TROUGH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SEND A
POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW, IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WE GET WILL BE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
PASSES, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO REACH THE ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO A STRONGER STORM,
AND AS SUCH SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH APPEARS TO BE A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT AS OF
RIGHT NOW. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, MUCH DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY
WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH SEEM PLAUSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE ON TUESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GUSTY WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
THE POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SET
UP BEHIND IT. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED, GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS INDICATING WIND GUSTS
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, WITH A FEW SHOWING HIGHER THAN THAT.
THUS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE'LL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS, MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MORNING FOG.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME VERY HIGH CIRRUS IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
THE MOST PART, THOUGH, THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET
AND VFR. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS
LAST NIGHT, AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT MORE WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FOG ALREADY. AS A
RESULT, HAVE FORECAST FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT AGS, WITH
TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG AT CAE/CUB/OGB BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z LATER
TONIGHT. CROSSOVER TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EVERYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON, NEAR WHERE OUR FORECAST LOWS ARE. SO IT IS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BE OUT AND ABOUT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE TOMORROW AS MOISTURE PUSHES IN AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT, JUST ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THEY COULD ARRIVE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER, THOUGH, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY AT
AGS/DNL SPECIFICALLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE AND A FRONT CROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NEGATE ANY RESTRICTIONS
LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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