151  
FXUS62 KCAE 192021  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
321 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY,  
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF 30-40 MPH GUSTS  
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THROUGHOUT  
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY  
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE GOM, GENERALLY AHEAD OF A STRONG  
SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AL. SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE WHILE A DEEPENING CYCLONE IS  
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE  
INTO THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY TO AROUND 1.5"-1.7". SHOWERS AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT  
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT INTENSITY. NO LIGHTNING IS BEING  
DETECTED AT THIS TIME. SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS  
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE PATTERN PROGRESSES, WITH CHANCE-LIKELY POPS  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.75", BUT RAIN HAS STARTED SLIGHTLY EARLIER  
THAN EXPECTED, SO THERE IS A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM THERE, ESPECIALLY  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GULF COAST CONVECTION POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. WE'VE GENERALLY HIT OUR  
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY AS WELL, WITH VALUES PEAKING IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, AND SOME SIGNS OF COOLING ALREADY OCCURRING IN  
THE DENSE OVERCAST.  
 
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOWS A BIT OF SEPARATION BETWEEN TWO  
PERIODS OF RAIN, WITH THE SECOND BEING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING AND GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER CLOUD BASES. THIS FIRST  
ROUND IS GENERALLY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST  
AREA, WHILE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE  
NORTH WHERE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES THROUGH TO ENHANCE THE  
RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE RAIN AND OVERCAST,  
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AMID CONTINUING WEAK WARM  
AIR ADVECTION.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- BREEZY TO WINDY AND TURNING MUCH COOLER LATER THIS WEEK  
 
A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA LATE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WELL AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATE  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE  
LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BASED  
ON THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FORECAST. THIS IS A CONCERN FOR STANDING  
TREES DAMAGED BY HURRICANE HELENE SIX WEEKS AGO. THE COLD AIR  
ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.  
 
THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH KEEPS  
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION  
COULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL ACROSS THE  
REGION FRIDAY MORNING IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE  
FORECAST IS MODERATE AT BEST, SINCE THE GRADIENT ALOFT MAY NOT ALLOW  
FOR ATMOSPHERIC DECOUPLING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS  
 
A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE RELAXES DURING  
SATURDAY WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO SUBSIDE. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES  
THROUGH SATURDAY AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ON  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. A ZONAL FLOW  
ALOFT REPLACES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER  
BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DETERIORATING  
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  
 
BKN-OVC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. CIGS  
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS -SHRA MOVE TOWARD THE TERMINALS THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD  
CIG RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 19/20Z WITH MVFR CIGS  
FIRST ARRIVING AT AGS/DNL FOLLOWED BY IFR CIGS AFTER 20/00Z AS RAIN  
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. OCCASIONAL LIFR  
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WESTERN EDGE  
OF PRECIP STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT THEN BECOME SW TO W 10-15  
KTS AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE AND A FRONT CROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR  
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY RESTRICTIONS LATE IN THE  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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