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FXUS62 KCAE 200619
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
119 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF 30-40 MPH GUSTS
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED TO LIKELY RAIN OVERNIGHT
LIGHT RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MODERATE INTENSITY SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOM INTO
THE MIDLANDS WITH A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF RAIN TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE DUE TO
WEAK FORCING AND A STABLE LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB.
ALTHOUGH THE STABLE LAYER ERODES TOWARD DAYBREAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND THE RAIN OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY TO WINDY AND TURNING MUCH COOLER LATER THIS WEEK
A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BASED
ON THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FORECAST. THIS IS A CONCERN FOR STANDING
TREES DAMAGED BY HURRICANE HELENE SIX WEEKS AGO. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH KEEPS
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS MODERATE AT BEST, SINCE THE GRADIENT ALOFT MAY NOT ALLOW
FOR ATMOSPHERIC DECOUPLING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE RELAXES DURING
SATURDAY WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO SUBSIDE. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT REPLACES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER
BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL YIELD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
IFR/LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MORE STEADY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE TERMINALS WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVER WESTERN GEORGIA
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING TECH PREDAWN HOURS,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CIGS TO START THE PERIOD AND GRADUALLY FALL TO IFR/LIFR BY 12Z
WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z
AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 22Z-23Z TIME
FRAME FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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