785
FXUS62 KCAE 202041
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
341 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE COMING TO AN END
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH SLOWLY REBOUNDING TEMPS AFTER THAT AS RIDING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS, MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO EASTERN TN. CLOUD COVER WILL COME TO AN END AS THE FRONT NEARS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY EXITED THE AREA TO THE EAST, AND
DRIER AIR WILL INTRUDE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS WILL TANK FROM THE MID 60'S THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE LOW 30S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED FROM
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE, WITH PWATS FALLING
BELOW 0.2". STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AROUND 00Z, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO WEAKEN A BIT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE LIKELY PEAKED IN THE LOW 70S AND WILL DROP
QUICKLY TONIGHT, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DRIVEN BY COLD ADVECTION
RATHER THAN RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM, PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850 MB.
WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, LEADING TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40
MPH. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF MEMBERS
INDICATING OVER 40 MPH GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THE
GEFS AND HREF ONLY HAVE A FEW MEMBERS REACHING 40 MPH GUSTS.
OVERALL, THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PEAK WIND GUSTS
FOR THURSDAY, SO AM KEEPING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS IS AND
DON'T THINK AN UPGRADE TO A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. WE'LL STILL MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR THE WIND GUSTS TOMORROW
FOR FURTHER UPDATES. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY ON
FRIDAY, BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS TODAY OR THURSDAY. SO, NOT SURE ANY
WIND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
ASIDE FROM THE GUSTY WINDS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COLDER TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR ANY FROST. FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST AS COLD, IF NOT SLIGHTLY COLDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
FROST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS
DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK (32F) FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUALLY WARMING BUT DRY PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD, UPPER RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO REPLACE IT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD ARE FORECAST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS MIDWEEK, ANOTHER TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COULD BRING
US ANOTHER COOL DOWN.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AT WHICH
TIME CLEARING AND A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KTS THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, GENERALLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEARING 25 KTS. SOME
WEAKER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 06-14Z, BUT WINDS BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY OUT OF THE W/NW. A FEW GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 30 KTS. SKIES SHOULD BE SKC ON THURSDAY AS WELL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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