231
FXUS62 KCAE 202353
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND MOVE
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TEMPS AFTER THAT AS RIDING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING WINDS
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALLING
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS GREATLY LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MORE THAN OFFSET THE
LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AS WINDS
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY AROUND DAYBREAK THEN BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM, PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850 MB.
WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TOMORROW, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, LEADING TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40
MPH. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF MEMBERS
INDICATING OVER 40 MPH GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THE
GEFS AND HREF ONLY HAVE A FEW MEMBERS REACHING 40 MPH GUSTS.
OVERALL, THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PEAK WIND GUSTS
FOR THURSDAY, SO AM KEEPING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS IS AND
DON'T THINK AN UPGRADE TO A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. WE'LL STILL MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR THE WIND GUSTS TOMORROW
FOR FURTHER UPDATES. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY ON
FRIDAY, BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS TODAY OR THURSDAY. SO, NOT SURE ANY
WIND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
ASIDE FROM THE GUSTY WINDS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COLDER TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR ANY FROST. FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST AS COLD, IF NOT SLIGHTLY COLDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
FROST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS
DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK (32F) FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUALLY WARMING BUT DRY PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD, UPPER RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO REPLACE IT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD ARE FORECAST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS MIDWEEK, ANOTHER TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COULD BRING
US ANOTHER COOL DOWN.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY
PUSHED THROUGH AND DRY AIR IS USHERING IN RAPIDLY. SECONDARY
FRONT IS AN HOUR OR TWO AWAY FROM EACH SITE BUT WILL BRING WITH
IT AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS. LOOK FOR A FEW HOURS OF
20-30 KNOT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEHIND THIS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE
DOWN AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
THOUGH AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 15Z WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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