970
FXUS62 KCAE 210555
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SLOWLY REBOUNDING TEMPS AFTER THAT AS
RIDING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT IS BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION ON GUSTY WINDS
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND IT,
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
ADDITIONAL CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS GREATLY LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT PLENTY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MORE THAN OFFSET THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS
THE AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY AS WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY AROUND DAYBREAK THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM, PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850 MB.
WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, LEADING TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40
MPH. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF MEMBERS
INDICATING OVER 40 MPH GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THE
GEFS AND HREF ONLY HAVE A FEW MEMBERS REACHING 40 MPH GUSTS.
OVERALL, THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PEAK WIND GUSTS
FOR THURSDAY, SO AM KEEPING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS IS AND
DON'T THINK AN UPGRADE TO A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. WE'LL STILL MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR THE WIND GUSTS TOMORROW
FOR FURTHER UPDATES. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY ON
FRIDAY, BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS TODAY OR THURSDAY. SO, NOT SURE ANY
WIND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
ASIDE FROM THE GUSTY WINDS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COLDER TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR ANY FROST. FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO
BE JUST AS COLD, IF NOT SLIGHTLY COLDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
FROST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS
DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK (32F) FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUALLY WARMING BUT DRY PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD, UPPER RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO REPLACE IT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD ARE FORECAST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS MIDWEEK, ANOTHER TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COULD BRING
US ANOTHER COOL DOWN.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THE NEXT 24 HOURS, KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS TONIGHT OF 20-30 KNOT GUSTS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN
AFTER 08Z. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
THOUGH AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WIND
DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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