769
FXUS62 KCAE 160704
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
204 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL. COLDER AIR
RETURNS BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN US.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE UPSTATE EARLY
TODAY THEN BEGIN ERODING THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. EVE N WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER HOWEVER A WEST
TO EAST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA TO AROUND
70 IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING INTO TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOP WITH DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. HAVE
INCLUDED FOG FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF SYSTEMS PASSING NEAR BUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION. A
TROUGH SKIRTS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY, WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT OUTSIDE OF SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING
HEIGHTS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS,
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST. OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES.
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS DEFINED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AS A SERIES OF WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS QUITE WARM, WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY. THE FRONT RACES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST,
BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS A FEW MODELS INDICATE UP TO A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
FRONT. BUT FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY, BUT
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW
AREN'T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BACKING OFF
ON RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM SO THERE REMAINS
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF ANY RAIN AND HOW HEAVY OR
LIGHT IT MAY END UP BEING. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT AFTER
THE WARM TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN RETURNING TO
VFR.
SURFACE WEDGE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE AREA WITH A MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE WITH MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. TODAY
THE WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TO VFR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. CONCERN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS REMAINING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. HAVE
REMAINED WITHOUT MENTION ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
ONSET. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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