672
FXUS62 KCAE 190814
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
314 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER. A SECOND FRONT CLEARS SKIES OUT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD
WEATHER WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED TOWARDS CHRISTMAS ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PATCHY FOG TO START THURSDAY, CLEARING AROUND SUNRISE.
- SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR IS PUSHING
INTO THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SINKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPING IN THE LULL BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS LAST EVENING AND FRONTAL ARRIVAL. THE FOG IS ERODING
STEADILY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS OF 3AM AND LIKELY WON'T LAST MUCH
PAST 5AM. A SECONDARY BACKDOOR FRONT IS ALSO DESCENDING FROM THE
NORTH THANKS TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS SECOND FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THIS
MORNING, SOMETIME BETWEEN 8-11AM, AND WILL BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS OVER 20 MPH BRIEFLY AS SOME HEATING HELPS MIX DOWN
STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS. OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 60 F. THE STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AND DRY
ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A
VERY SHARP SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARDS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- DECREASING CLOUDINESS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PWATS FALLING IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS BULLISH ON
LOCKING MOISTURE INTO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, KEEPING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AROUND UNTIL A SECOND COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY TO CLEAR THINGS OUT. THE PASSAGE OF TWO SHORTWAVES
DURING THE PERIOD COULD SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT THE CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS LOW, LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT, SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS PACKAGE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR BOTH DAYS, ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO
MID-60S. THE CLOUDS LIMIT COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. IT WON'T BE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT THAT CAA
TAKES OVER BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COLD
ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES, SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP AT NIGHT
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID-30S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY.
- SEVERAL NIGHTS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH STRONG TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS, BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL NIGHTS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE HOW COLD WE
GET AND IF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT ANY POINT IN
THE EXTENDED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND NOT DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEALIZED
RADIATIONAL COOLING KEEPING VALUES OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HAVING SAID THAT, THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A CWA WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHEN WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. REGARDLESS,
PREPARATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER SHOULD BE
MADE, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE TRAVELING AWAY FROM HOME
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. SPEAKING OF CHRISTMAS,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT MAY COME AT THE PRICE OF ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ON OR
AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MIX OF VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL SC AND EASTERN GA
THIS MORNING AND IS CAUSING SOME PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FOR THE
TAF'S. VSBY-CIGS DROPS TO IFR-LIFR WILL CONTINUE AT CAE AND CUB
THROUGH 10-11Z AS FOG SLOWLY CLEARS FROM WEST. AGS AND DNL
SHOULD SEE CONSISTENT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR-MVFR BY 09Z. OGB WILL
LIKELY LINGER AT IFR-LIFR ALSO UNTIL ROUGHLY 11Z. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE AND CURRENT OBS, THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE
RESTRICTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING WELL DUE TO THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE FOG-STRATUS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING FOG-STRATUS BY 11-12Z FOR THE AREA. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL THEN PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN
13-16Z ACROSS THE AREA BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS, BRIEFLY
OVER 20 MPH FOR ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST
OF THURSDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS LINGERING UNTIL THURSDAY
EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING-AFTERNOON AT CAE AND CUB WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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