951
FXUS62 KCAE 210045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING,
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD WEATHER WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS CHRISTMAS ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
- COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER
OFF OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PROMOTING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT, MAXIMIZED BETWEEN NOW AND 11PM OR SO WITH
HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING 850MB WINDS DECREASING AFTER 11PM. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH MAX GUSTS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH, DECREASING INTO TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NOTICEABLY COLDER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND WITH SUBFREEZING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
A COLD, DRY AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LOWER ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAA AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PRESENT AT NIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH, KEEPING WINDS FROM GOING COMPLETELY CALM. WHILE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT, EVEN
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ITS ISSUANCE HAS DECREASED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS BEGINS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES DURING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES, WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE REMAIN, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE
REGION THIS EVENING WHICH HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT THIS REMAINS
NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG AND GUSTY
DURING THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE
WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
DAWN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY 14Z-15Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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