395
FXUS62 KCAE 141617
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1117 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN
SHOWERS BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL, BUT DO RISE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A RETURN OF THE COLD EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE THE CALM WEATHER
INTO WEDNESDAY.
A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP TURN WINDS A BIT MORE
WESTERLY, BUT OTHERWISE NO NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS.
SOME MOISTURE ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING, INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
MORE DEFINED SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH IN AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE CONSEQUENTLY A BIT OF A TRICKY PICTURE.
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AND THEREFORE NO SURFACE LAYER DECOUPLING. SO
STEERED TOWARDS THE HIGHEST END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT, DROPPING TO AROUND 30 F ACROSS THE AREA (RATHER THAN
THE MID-20'S LIKE THE MEAN OF GUIDANCE GIVEN TYPICAL BIASES).
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE MAY STAY JUST NORTH OF THE
CLOUD COVER, SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY STEEP LOW TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HREF MEAN PWATS
BELOW 0.4 INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A RESULT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SO LOWS WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN TONIGHT,
MAINLY IN THE MID-20S. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY
WITH WARMING AT 850MB LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER BEYOND.
BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH
PROBABILITY (AROUND 70 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) OF PWATS
RISING TO ABOVE AN INCH SATURDAY WITH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS
IN A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING RELATIVELY STRONG
FORCING LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES. AS A
RESULT, BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THIS IS ALSO NOTED IN THE RELATIVELY LARGE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE IN BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING WINDS
WESTERLY BY THE EVENING BUT REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS WELL BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONSEQUENTLY TURN MORE
NORTHERLY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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